10:00 AM | *In just two weeks, it’ll be time to “Play Ball” and there will likely be some additional cold air outbreaks…recent trend for the month of April has been colder-than-normal*
Paul Dorian
The month of April has been colder-than-normal on average during the past six years across a wide part of the country. Data courtesy NOAA
Overview
The 2024 baseball season gets underway in just two weeks on Thursday, March 28th, and a sneak peek at the weather from this long-range vantage point suggests there certainly can be additional cold air outbreaks to deal with in many areas. If indeed a sustained colder-than-normal weather pattern were to set up by April, this would follow a recent trend for the month which has been colder-than-normal on average across much of the nation.
Details
While the winter season was generally warmer-than-normal across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation, it would not be too unusual to see a shift to colder-than-normal conditions for the early part of the spring. In fact, a look at the temperature anomalies across the nation during the month of April in the past six years (2018-2023) shows colder-than-normal conditions on average across much of the eastern two-thirds of the nation and there is a chance that this coming April continues that trend.
From this vantage point, it appears there may be widespread colder-than-normal air by the end of the month encompassing much of the nation. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
The next couple of days will continue to be much warmer-than-normal across the eastern part of the US and across much of Canada as well. Changes begin to take place in the overall pattern later next week across Canada with colder-than-normal air becoming more and more widespread as upper-level ridging gives way to upper-level troughs. This change to our north may set the stage for additional cold air outbreaks into the US during the part of March which is the time the 2024 baseball season is set to begin.
A large scale upper-level trough of low pressure is likely to set up across southern Canada and the eastern half of the US later this month and that could set the stage for additional cold air outbreaks from Canada into the US. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
If, in fact, an overall colder-than-normal weather pattern develops by April across the US, it will follow a consistent trend in recent years. Specifically, many of the winters in recent years have featured warmer-than-normal conditions across much of the nation only to flip to colder-than-normal in the early spring. Indeed, the last six Aprils (2018 to 2023) have averaged out to be colder-than-normal across a wide part of the nation and there is a chance this trend continues in 2024.
Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies rounding the bases in late September 2023 after hitting a home run. Image courtesy MLB, Getty Images
There are still a couple of weeks to go before the 2024 baseball season begins so we’ll see how the overall weather pattern actually unfolds. One thing for sure, no matter what the weather brings, it will be great once again to hear those very satisfying words of “Play Ball”.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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