Melissa is now a category 5 “major” hurricane located just to the south of Jamaica and continues to drift to the west over some very warm water of the central Caribbean Sea. Hurricane Melissa will begin a gradual turn to the northwest and then north by later tonight and likely come ashore on Jamaica’s southern coast on Tuesday morning. After that, the hurricane will push in a northeasterly direction and pass over the eastern part of Cuba by early Wednesday – likely still as a major - and then likely the southeastern Bahama Islands by late Wednesday. By later Thursday, Melissa could come very close to the island of Bermuda as it picks up some forward speed and continues on a northeasterly direction...eventually bringing it out to the open waters of the North Atlantic.
Meanwhile, an active weather pattern over the continental US will feature a deepening upper-level trough by mid-week over the Tennessee Valley and this will help to spawn a strong surface-level storm system. This strong storm will likely produce a soaking event for the Mid-Atlantic region from later Wednesday through Thursday night with 2+ inches on the table, and onshore winds will be a noticeable factor as well. The rain may linger for a bit on Friday morning, but the bulk of Halloween Day should feature partial sunshine and quite windy and cool conditions.
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An area of high pressure to our north remains in control of the weather around here as we begin the new work week with today featuring cool conditions and a mix of sun and clouds. An active weather pattern will bring one storm system to the Carolinas from later tonight into Tuesday and its effects will generally stay to our south; however, a couple of showers cannot be ruled out later Tuesday night and early Wednesday. A second storm will then push northeast from the Tennessee Valley from later Wednesday into Thursday and it’ll likely produce a soaking rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region and the threat of rain can linger into early Friday. The rest of the day on Friday (Halloween Day) should feature windy and cool conditions and a return to partly sunny skies.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and strong high pressure to our north will be in control for the next several days. The weather through the early part of next week will feature cool, dry days with highs generally in the mid-to-upper 50’s and quite chilly nights with frost possible in some locations and overnight lows down in the 30’s. A storm system may then impact the region from late Tuesday into Wednesday with some rainfall and the cool weather conditions will continue as well. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Melissa will continue to drift over the Caribbean Sea for the next few days…likely to become a hurricane on Saturday and perhaps a “major” by Monday.
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Tropical Storm Melissa continues to drift today over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and will likely do so for several days to come. There has been no intensification of the tropical system during the past 24 hours or so as it is in an area featuring strong westerly vertical wind shear. Wind shear in the general vicinity of the circulation center of Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to diminish over the upcoming weekend which should allow for intensification of the system into a minimal hurricane, and a strengthening to “major”, category 5 status is certainly on the table by early next week. Ultimately, this tropical system will take a turn to the north - likely crossing over central/eastern Cuba - on its way to the western Atlantic Ocean. An active weather pattern next week will feature a powerful jet streak, intense blocking in the atmosphere centered over Canada, plenty of colder-than-normal air, an intensifying upper-level trough over the central and eastern US, and Hurricane Melissa. There is quite likely going to be some kind of interaction between the inland upper-level trough and the western Atlantic Ocean hurricane, and a “late in the game” turn to the northwest by the tropical system cannot be completely ruled out.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday morning and a secondary front pushes through later today. The end result of these two frontal passages will be a stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions that’ll last right through the early part of next week. Temperatures can bottom out in the mid-to-upper 30’s during each of the next few nights which can result in late night patchy frost across some of the northern and western suburbs.
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“Melissa” became the first named tropical storm of the year so far in the Caribbean Sea and it had been moving westward at a fairly rapid clip until just recently. A dramatic slowdown has taken place with Tropical Storm Melissa as it has moved into an area with very weak winds in the atmosphere. The slow movement of TS Melissa may last for the next several days and it is occurring over some very warm water in the central Caribbean...fully capable of supporting further intensification. Environmental conditions will become quite supportive of intensification as well in coming days with overall wind shear likely to diminish. This combination of favorable water temperatures for intensification along with improving environmental conditions raises the chance that TS Melissa intensifies all the way to “major” hurricane status by late this weekend or early next week. Looking ahead to later next week, with a deepening trough of low pressure likely to form just inland, there certainly can be some interaction between the inland trough and the western Atlantic tropical system…stay tuned; especially, if a resident in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/New England.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic last night and today will turn out to be a cooler day than yesterday with breezy conditions and some sunshine returning to the area. A secondary cold front passes through the area later tomorrow and the end result of these frontal passages will be a stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions from today right through the upcoming weekend.
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The European model run on Monday morning produced some stunningly high rainfall amounts of a foot or more in much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the 5-day period ending on Saturday, November 1st. Meanwhile, the Canadian model run from Monday night featured what is likely to be a hurricane (Melissa) producing accumulating snow over some of the higher elevations of the Northeast US late next week after it shifts northwest towards the New England coastline and encounters an unusually cold air mass. While odds are against either of these scenarios coming to fruition, they do suggest to me that the models are correctly sniffing out the potential for some energetic weather from later next week into the following week and there are several ingredients likely to come into play for just such a pattern. The ingredients include a powerful jet streak that will push into the western US this weekend from the northern Pacific Ocean, intense blocking in the upper part of the atmosphere that is likely to develop across central Canada by the middle of next week, a cold air intrusion into the US from Canada, and a likely hurricane over the western Atlantic Ocean.
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One cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region early yesterday and a second one arrives later tonight. This next cold front can cause some shower activity in the area during the nighttime hours, but nothing significant in terms of total rainfall amounts. Breezy and cool conditions will prevail on Wednesday behind the front to go along with increasing amounts of sunshine. Slightly cooler-than-normal conditions are likely to continue in the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday through the upcoming weekend with plenty of sunshine on each day.
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There have been some notable storms near the east coast during the late stages of October and early parts of November including Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022 which made landfall in Florida. It is at this time of year where there can be a “last gasp” from the Atlantic Basin tropical season as water is still quite warm in places like the Caribbean Sea, and southwestern Atlantic Ocean. At the same time, there is often an increasing frequency of chilly air masses moving from Canada into the US warning us that winter is not too far away. It is this combination of a waning tropical season combined with increasingly winter-like chill that can cause volatile weather patterns in late October and early November and we could be setting up for something like that for late next week into the beginning of November.
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