Tuesday marks the 113th anniversary of the sinking of the RMS Titanic (April 15, 1912) and I thought I’d revisit the overall weather pattern that played a key role in the tragedy. By studying weather maps and written records from that time, some definitive conclusions can be drawn about the weather during the trip across the Atlantic, and there are also some interesting relatively new theories involving atmospheric conditions and their possible effects.
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We’re not quite done yet with the cold air intrusions into the northeastern part of the nation and the next strong cold front can produce some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity tonight in portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic region with downpours, vivid lightning and damaging wind gusts on the table. Following the passage of a strong cold front, the winds will become a big factor on Tuesday and Tuesday night with gusts of 40 mph or so from a west-to-northwest direction. The risk of severe weather will increase this weekend across the nation’s mid-section as another clash develops between incoming cold, dry air to the west and warm, humid air to the east.
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The number of named tropical storms in 2025 is likely to be nearly-normal in the Atlantic Basin which would be lower than the totals of last summer’s active season. The average number of named tropical storms in an Atlantic Basin tropical season is 14.4 with 7.2 of those reaching (minimal) hurricane status, and 3.2 reaching “major” classification (baseline period 1991-2020). Based on the overall analysis of current and forecasted conditions, I expect around 15 named storms in the Atlantic Basin this tropical season with about 7 reaching hurricane status and of those perhaps 3 to achieve “major” classification level.
Three important factors in this year’s tropical outlook include an expected relatively neutral signal in the tropical Pacific Ocean with respect to sea surface temperatures (SSTs), only moderately warm water temperatures anticipated in the Main Development Region (MDR) of the Atlantic Ocean, and a stubborn pocket of colder-than-normal waters off the west coast of Africa. While the lack of any kind of significant El Nino (warmer-than-normal water) in the tropical Pacific typically favors an active tropical season in the Atlantic Basin, the water temperatures in both the breeding grounds region of the Atlantic Ocean and those just off the west coast of Africa should act as a counterbalance.
In terms of summertime weather expected across the continental US, there is an especially strong signal for hot and dry conditions across the nation’s heartland from Texas-to-North Dakota which is being primed by an unusually dry spring in much of that part of the nation. Also, there is the potential of wetter-than-normal weather in much of the eastern US to go along with nearly normal to slightly below-normal temperatures and, in the western US, nearly normal temperatures and rainfall amounts.
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The risk is high today for a severe weather outbreak across the Tennessee Valley, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, and Mid-South and this threat includes the possibility of multiple strong (EF-3+) tornadoes. Numerous ingredients are coming together to result in a widespread severe weather outbreak later today and tonight including strong jet streaks at multiple levels of the atmosphere, a clash of air masses with cold, dry air to the north and west and warm, humid air to the east and south, and a strong surface low pressure system with its attendant cold front. In addition to the severe weather, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way for much of this same part of the nation from later today through the first half of the weekend with widespread flooding a serious concern.
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An on-going active weather pattern will result in strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today and tonight across the middle of the country and there can be isolated tornadoes as well. On Wednesday and Wednesday night, the severe weather threat will become enhanced across the Middle Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley and, this time, multiple strong tornadoes will be on the table. In this same part of the nation, it appears that a multi-day extreme rainfall event is on the way from later tomorrow through the upcoming weekend with widespread serious flooding a real concern.
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We all know the words…
“the weather started getting rough, the tiny shipped was tossed…”
Indeed, stormy weather played a critical role in the shipwrecking of the S.S. Minnow on that fateful day in late September 1964 onto an uncharted “desert” island somewhere in the Pacific Ocean. The ship set sail that day on a three-hour tour with five passengers, the captain of the S.S. Minnow, Jonas Grumby (aka Skipper), and his first mate named Gilligan. A sudden storm interrupted the tour, damaged the tiny ship, and the two-man crew somehow managed to steer the boat to safety onto an uninhabited island not far from the Hawaiian Islands.
For years, there has been a cloud hanging over the head of the Skipper as the result of conjecture that he was somehow at fault on that day in putting the passengers at risk. However, new evidence has come to light that should exonerate the Skipper once and for all from any wrongdoing.
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Strong-to-severe thunderstorms are a threat later today and tonight across much of the eastern US including in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as a strong cold front pushes eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard. This same frontal system resulted in numerous damaging wind gusts on Sunday across the Midwest/Mississippi Valley with a few tornadoes reported there as well and that same part of the nation will likely have a repeat performance of severe weather on Wednesday. In fact, numerous severe weather outbreaks are on the table for the month of April largely as the result of a recent stratospheric warming event which, in turn, enhances the likelihood for additional cold air outbreaks into the central and eastern states setting up “battle zone” regions. Finally, we’ll revisit the passage of a “back door” cold front this weekend that impacted the northeastern states and, in some locations, there were record-breaking temperature swings.
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Any long-time weather forecaster in the northeastern part of the nation knows quite well to be fearful of the “back door” cool front this time of year as it can make a forecast of summer-like temperatures look rather foolish with winter-like reality instead. Indeed, the “back door” cool front is rather common in the northeastern part of the US during the months of March and April, and it can mean the difference of 30-40 degrees over a short distance, and the difference between summer and winter weather conditions over a short period of time.
In fact, there can be winter-like temperatures this Saturday in Boston, Massachusetts while a summer-like feel is as close by as Harford, Connecticut, and summer-like temperatures in New York City and New Jersey on Saturday can drop significantly by Sunday after the passage of a “back door” cool front from northeast-to-southwest. The key factor in the potential dramatic impact of the passage of a “back door” cool front this time of year is that the western Atlantic Ocean is still quite cold so a switch of low-level flow of air from a warmer continental direction to an ocean flow can result in substantial temperature swings.
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The “boys of summer” are back in town...big-league baseball gets underway on Thursday with home openers in New York City (Yankees vs. Brewers) and Washington, D.C. (Nationals vs Phillies) where there should be loads of sunshine and dry, cool conditions. High pressure will be in control of the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday resulting in the dry, cool conditions with highs likely in the lower 50’s across New York City and the upper 50’s in the D.C. metro. After a warm frontal passage on Friday night, a major-league warmup is coming on Saturday with 80 degrees on the table in at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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Artificial intelligence (AI) is a collection of technologies that allow computers to perform tasks that typically require human intelligence, and it is increasingly impacting the world of weather forecasting. The European Center for Medium-Range Forecasting (ECMWF) has made strides with its Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) as it has recently become fully operational and is now run side-by-side with its traditional physics-based Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). According to the ECMWF, the AIFS has outperformed the physics-based model for many measures including, for example, tropical cyclone tracks. The increasingly important role of AI in weather forecasting will be to supplement and enhance traditional NWP models…and not to replace the. In addition to the ECMWF AIFS, there are at least four other known “A.I. trained” weather models including NOAA/Google GraphCast, Microsoft’s Aurora, NVIDIA’s FourCast, and Huawei’s Pangu-Weather.
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