A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday and strong high pressure to our north will be in control for the next several days. The weather through the early part of next week will feature cool, dry days with highs generally in the mid-to-upper 50’s and quite chilly nights with frost possible in some locations and overnight lows down in the 30’s. A storm system may then impact the region from late Tuesday into Wednesday with some rainfall and the cool weather conditions will continue as well. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm Melissa will continue to drift over the Caribbean Sea for the next few days…likely to become a hurricane on Saturday and perhaps a “major” by Monday.
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Tropical Storm Melissa continues to drift today over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and will likely do so for several days to come. There has been no intensification of the tropical system during the past 24 hours or so as it is in an area featuring strong westerly vertical wind shear. Wind shear in the general vicinity of the circulation center of Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to diminish over the upcoming weekend which should allow for intensification of the system into a minimal hurricane, and a strengthening to “major” (category 3 or higher) hurricane status is certainly on the table by early next week. Ultimately, this tropical system will take a turn to the north - perhaps crossing over central Cuba - on its way to the western Atlantic Ocean. An active weather pattern next week will feature a powerful jet streak, intense blocking in the atmosphere centered over Canada, plenty of colder-than-normal air, an intensifying upper-level trough over the central and eastern US, and Hurricane Melissa. There is quite likely going to be some kind of interaction between the inland upper-level trough and the western Atlantic Ocean hurricane, and a “late in the game” turn to the northwest by the tropical system cannot be completely ruled out.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday morning and a secondary front pushes through later today. The end result of these two frontal passages will be a stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions that’ll last right through the early part of next week. Temperatures can bottom out in the mid-to-upper 30’s during each of the next few nights which can result in late night patchy frost across some of the northern and western suburbs.
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“Melissa” became the first named tropical storm of the year so far in the Caribbean Sea and it had been moving westward at a fairly rapid clip until just recently. A dramatic slowdown has taken place with Tropical Storm Melissa as it has moved into an area with very weak winds in the atmosphere. The slow movement of TS Melissa may last for the next several days and it is occurring over some very warm water in the central Caribbean...fully capable of supporting further intensification. Environmental conditions will become quite supportive of intensification as well in coming days with overall wind shear likely to diminish. This combination of favorable water temperatures for intensification along with improving environmental conditions raises the chance that TS Melissa intensifies all the way to “major” hurricane status by late this weekend or early next week. Looking ahead to later next week, with a deepening trough of low pressure likely to form just inland, there certainly can be some interaction between the inland trough and the western Atlantic tropical system…stay tuned; especially, if a resident in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/New England.
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A cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region last night and today will turn out to be a cooler day than yesterday with a noticeable breeze and a mix of clouds and sun. A secondary cold front passes through the area later tomorrow and the end result of these frontal passages will be a stretch of cooler-than-normal conditions from today right through the upcoming weekend.
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The European model run on Monday morning produced some stunningly high rainfall amounts of a foot or more in much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the 5-day period ending on Saturday, November 1st. Meanwhile, the Canadian model run from Monday night featured what is likely to be a hurricane (Melissa) producing accumulating snow over some of the higher elevations of the Northeast US late next week after it shifts northwest towards the New England coastline and encounters an unusually cold air mass. While odds are against either of these scenarios coming to fruition, they do suggest to me that the models are correctly sniffing out the potential for some energetic weather from later next week into the following week and there are several ingredients likely to come into play for just such a pattern. The ingredients include a powerful jet streak that will push into the western US this weekend from the northern Pacific Ocean, intense blocking in the upper part of the atmosphere that is likely to develop across central Canada by the middle of next week, a cold air intrusion into the US from Canada, and a likely hurricane over the western Atlantic Ocean.
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One cold front passed through the Mid-Atlantic region early yesterday and a second one arrives later tonight. This next cold front can cause some shower activity in the area during the nighttime hours, but nothing significant in terms of total rainfall amounts. Breezy and cool conditions will prevail on Wednesday behind the front to go along with increasing amounts of sunshine. Slightly cooler-than-normal conditions are likely to continue in the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday through the upcoming weekend with plenty of sunshine on each day.
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There have been some notable storms near the east coast during the late stages of October and early parts of November including Hurricane Sandy in 2012, the so-called “Perfect Storm” in 1991, and Hurricane Nicole in 2022 which made landfall in Florida. It is at this time of year where there can be a “last gasp” from the Atlantic Basin tropical season as water is still quite warm in places like the Caribbean Sea, and southwestern Atlantic Ocean. At the same time, there is often an increasing frequency of chilly air masses moving from Canada into the US warning us that winter is not too far away. It is this combination of a waning tropical season combined with increasingly winter-like chill that can cause volatile weather patterns in late October and early November and we could be setting up for something like that for late next week into the beginning of November.
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After the passage of a strong cold front, the new work week will start with windy and cooler conditions with increasing amounts of sunshine…there can be a lingering early day shower. Weak high pressure pushes into the region later today and then another cold front heads our way late on Tuesday. This next front will not be quite as strong as the system that is crossing through the region this morning, but there can be a few showers to deal with during its passage on Tuesday night. High pressure resumes control for much of the second half of the week with breezy and cool conditions to prevail.
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The work week will end on a cool note, but it turns milder this weekend ahead of the next cold front that crosses the area from Sunday night into Monday. Winds will increase markedly on Sunday ahead of the cold front and temperatures should climb into the low-to-mid 70’s to close out the weekend. Showers may pop at at the end of the day on Sunday with the arrival of the cold front and are quite likely on Sunday night. In fact, there can be a few downpours on Sunday night with this cold frontal passage and perhaps a strong thunderstorm or two mixed in. High pressure will build back into the Mid-Atlantic region behind the front on Monday and another cold front approaches late Tuesday.
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