There were strong-to-severe thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and last night across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and there can be a repeat performance later today and tonight across an even more widespread area. The combination of an incoming surface cold front, strong and intensifying upper-level support, increasing wind shear, and an entrenched warm and very humid air mass will help to destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage and intensity during the mid-day and early afternoon hours across central and western sections of the Mid-Atlantic and then these storms will trek to the east and likely reach the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor during the mid-to-late afternoon/early evening hours (2-9pm timetable). Some of the storms are likely to reach strong-to-severe levels producing torrential rainfall/flash flooding, and potentially damaging wind gusts. The frontal system will hang up for awhile on Wednesday morning near the east coast and there can be lingering showers and thunderstorms along the immediate I-95 corridor and points from there to the coastal sections of New Jersey and the Delmarva Peninsula.
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A “conventional” surface cold front will approach the area later today from the northwest (last week’s “back door” cold front moved from northeast-to-southwest). In addition, an upper-level trough will shift eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region, intensify and enhance upward motion all along the I-95 corridor. Given the combination of these systems and the entrenched heat and humidity, showers and thunderstorms will reform this afternoon and there is the risk that some of the storms will reach strong-to-severe levels containing torrential rainfall/flash-flooding and damaging wind gusts.
High pressure will take control of the weather on Wednesday and then a weak cold front will arrive late in the day on Thursday with an isolated shower or two possible. Following the passage of the weak cold front, the Independence Day holiday on Friday should turn out to be quite nice in the Mid-Atlantic region with plenty of sunshine, lower humidity, and comfortably warm conditions and that nice weather should last into at least the first part of the upcoming weekend.
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There was a break in the action on Sunday across the northern Mid-Atlantic region, but strong thunderstorms hit many spots across southern sections to close out the last weekend of June. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will become quite high throughout the entire Mid-Atlantic region from later today into tonight, and this threat will continue Tuesday and Tuesday night...both time periods will come with the risk of strong-to-severe thunderstorms. The combination of a stationary front that turns around later today and pushes northward as a warm front, and the approach of a cold front later tomorrow will keep it unsettled around here, and any thunderstorm on either day can produce torrential rainfall and damaging wind gusts. High pressure pushes in for the mid-week and then a weak cold front comes through late Thursday paving the way for a very nice Independence Day holiday on Friday featuring plenty of sunshine in the Mid-Atlantic region, lower humidity levels, and comfortably warm conditions.
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A couple of frontal systems will keep it unsettled around here for the next couple of days and temperatures will run at quite warm levels. A warm front pushes northward through the region today and then a cold front approaches from the northwest on Tuesday. There can be showers and thunderstorms both today and tomorrow with these two systems and any storm can be on the strong-to-severe side with torrential rainfall and damaging wind gusts on the table. High pressure will follow the passage of the cold front at mid-week and then a weak front comes through late Thursday leading to a nice 4th of July holiday on Friday plenty of sunshine, warm and less humid conditions.
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The passage of a “back door” cool front has ushered in noticeably cooler air to the Philly metro region and low-level winds will be consistent today from an east-to-northeast direction. The day should feature lots of clouds and scattered showers…perhaps a late day thunderstorm. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night as the “back door” cool front turns around and pushes to the north as a warm front. Any storm that occurs tonight through tomorrow night can be on the strong side. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn much warmer on Saturday, but the intense heat from earlier in the week will not make a return. The weekend closes out with plenty of sunshine on Sunday, warm conditions, and a reduced chance of rain.
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The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be reduced here today compared to the recent high heat and then it’ll turn even cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).
There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.
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Today will feature high heat and humidity once again in the Mid-Atlantic region and high temperature records for the date are likely to be set in many locations. There is relief on the way, however, thanks to a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England during the next couple of days. Temperatures will be much reduced in the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon as an ocean flow of air (east-to-northwest winds) develops following the passage of the back door cool front. The transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the cool down at the end of the week will come with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe.
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The official high temperature yesterday recorded at Philly International Airport (PHL) was 101 degrees which broke a record for the date and was the first triple-digit reading since July 2012. The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure parked overhead during the past couple of days will begin to break down later today and also shift slowly to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and the combination of these two systems will allow for the formation of a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England over the next couple of days. As a result, relief is in sight here in terms of temperatures (70’s on Friday) and precipitation chances will be on the rise. There can be scattered shower and thunderstorm activity later today and early tonight and that threat of rain should increase some on Thursday. Any storm that forms either late today or on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region can reach strong-to-severe levels. Unsettled weather conditions will continue on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and a look ahead to next week suggests temperatures could be quite reasonable as the calendar shifts from June to July.
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There were some records tied or broken on Monday and a few spots reached the century mark; however, the peak of this current hot spell comes today with numerous 100-degree readings likely all along the DC-to-Boston corridor. In fact, it is possible that 100-degree readings are experienced later today in each state all the way from Maine-to-Florida. In Philadelphia on Monday, temperatures reached 99 degrees which broke the record for the date set just one year ago, and 100 degrees is certainly on the table for this afternoon which would be the first at “PHL” since July of 2012.
There is relief in sight for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US and, in some cases, there can be a dramatic drop in temperatures following the passage of a back door cool front. The overall weather pattern becomes unsettled as well with the chance of showers and thunderstorms returning on Wednesday afternoon and then increasing on Thursday...any thunderstorm that forms on either day can be strong-to-severe. Looking ahead to next week, overall temperatures look quite reasonable for much of the eastern half of the nation as the calendar transitions from June to July.
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Yesterday featured high temperatures near the 100 degree mark in many locations along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with a record-breaking 99 degrees recorded at Philly International Airport (PHL). The bad news with respect to this current hot spell is that the peak may actually come later today with numerous 100 degree readings on the table in the I-95 corridor compared to Monday. The good news is that much relief is in sight by the end of the work week on Friday and next week looks much closer-to-normal in terms of overall temperatures.
The last time Philadelphia officially reached 100 degrees at the International Airport (PHL) was on July 18th, 2012…and it could happen again later today. The very strong ridge of high pressure to our north will weaken later in the week and also shift southward. As a result, the heat will not be as intense here on Wednesday and there will be a chance of PM showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures drop even further on Thursday as a back door cool front approaches the region and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase. Any thunderstorm that forms on both Wednesday and Thursday can be strong-to-severe. This back door cool front could actually bring much relief by Friday as an ocean flow of air could develop and end the work week on a cool note.
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