There will be as many as three cold fronts to deal with in the northeastern part of the nation during the next week or so days, but the third system will be the most important and is destined to arrive late in the upcoming weekend. The first cold front comes through on Wednesday night primarily on the dry side and it turns cooler behind it on Thursday. The second cold front then arrives on Friday night likely producing some shower activity into the day on Friday. It is the third cold front that likely arrives later Sunday which will have the biggest impact with the coldest air of the season so far to follow for early next week. This cold air outbreak early next week may be accompanied by some early season accumulating snow across the Great Lakes and interior sections of the Northeast US/New England.
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Strong low pressure pushes into the northeastern states today and we’ll have windy and cool conditions in its wake across the Tennessee Valley. Temperatures later today are likely to reach the middle or upper 50’s for afternoon highs and then could edge into the 60’s on Friday. Patchy frost is possible late tomorrow night and again late tomorrow night in a few valley regions with overnight lows in the 30’s.
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A deep upper-level trough will develop over the Tennessee Valley by mid-week bringing cool and unsettled weather to northern Alabama including the chance of showers from late tonight through Wednesday. It stays mainly cloudy on Thursday and on the cool side with lingering showers still possible during the AM hours. Milder and drier weather returns to the area by the end of the work week, and the weekend should feature mainly mild and dry conditions with partial sunshine each day.
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The next couple of days will remain quite nice across the Tennessee Valley with plenty of sunshine and comfortably warm conditions. It turns cooler and unsettled for the weekend and early part of next week with an upper-level trough starting to form across the central and eastern US.
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Tropical Storm Melissa continues to drift today over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea and will likely do so for several days to come. There has been no intensification of the tropical system during the past 24 hours or so as it is in an area featuring strong westerly vertical wind shear. Wind shear in the general vicinity of the circulation center of Tropical Storm Melissa is likely to diminish over the upcoming weekend which should allow for intensification of the system into a minimal hurricane, and a strengthening to “major”, category 5 status is certainly on the table by early next week. Ultimately, this tropical system will take a turn to the north - likely crossing over central/eastern Cuba - on its way to the western Atlantic Ocean. An active weather pattern next week will feature a powerful jet streak, intense blocking in the atmosphere centered over Canada, plenty of colder-than-normal air, an intensifying upper-level trough over the central and eastern US, and Hurricane Melissa. There is quite likely going to be some kind of interaction between the inland upper-level trough and the western Atlantic Ocean hurricane, and a “late in the game” turn to the northwest by the tropical system cannot be completely ruled out.
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The next few days will feature decent weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley with some sunshine on each day and comfortable temperatures peaking in the lower 70’s on a daily basis. The weather becomes more unsettled later this weekend with an increasing chance of showers by Sunday and that threat of rain will likely continue early next week.
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“Melissa” became the first named tropical storm of the year so far in the Caribbean Sea and it had been moving westward at a fairly rapid clip until just recently. A dramatic slowdown has taken place with Tropical Storm Melissa as it has moved into an area with very weak winds in the atmosphere. The slow movement of TS Melissa may last for the next several days and it is occurring over some very warm water in the central Caribbean...fully capable of supporting further intensification. Environmental conditions will become quite supportive of intensification as well in coming days with overall wind shear likely to diminish. This combination of favorable water temperatures for intensification along with improving environmental conditions raises the chance that TS Melissa intensifies all the way to “major” hurricane status by late this weekend or early next week. Looking ahead to later next week, with a deepening trough of low pressure likely to form just inland, there certainly can be some interaction between the inland trough and the western Atlantic tropical system…stay tuned; especially, if a resident in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/New England.
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The next few days will feature decent weather conditions across the Tennessee Valley with some sunshine on each day and comfortable temperatures peaking in the lower 70’s on a daily basis. The weather becomes more unsettled this weekend with an increasing chance of showers by Saturday night and Sunday and that threat of rain will continue early next week.
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The European model run on Monday morning produced some stunningly high rainfall amounts of a foot or more in much of the Mid-Atlantic region for the 5-day period ending on Saturday, November 1st. Meanwhile, the Canadian model run from Monday night featured what is likely to be a hurricane (Melissa) producing accumulating snow over some of the higher elevations of the Northeast US late next week after it shifts northwest towards the New England coastline and encounters an unusually cold air mass. While odds are against either of these scenarios coming to fruition, they do suggest to me that the models are correctly sniffing out the potential for some energetic weather from later next week into the following week and there are several ingredients likely to come into play for just such a pattern. The ingredients include a powerful jet streak that will push into the western US this weekend from the northern Pacific Ocean, intense blocking in the upper part of the atmosphere that is likely to develop across central Canada by the middle of next week, a cold air intrusion into the US from Canada, and a likely hurricane over the western Atlantic Ocean.
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There will be a slight chance of showers on Tuesday across the Tennessee Valley, but for the most part, the reminder of the week looks quite decent. High temperatures this afternoon should be near the 75-degree mark and likely in the low-to-middle 70’s for the rest of the week.
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