Today and tomorrow will feature plenty of sunshine and quite warm conditions around here with temperatures climbing well up into the 80’s for afternoon highs. High pressure will be the main player through Wednesday, but an approaching cold frontal system on Wednesday night will turn out to be the dominant player for much of the second half of the week and also the upcoming weekend. This front will reluctantly slide across the region on Thursday and then stall just to our south at the end of the week ultimately allowing disturbances to track along its boundary zone during the weekend and also the early part of next week. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase here later Wednesday night and continue on Thursday…any thunderstorm later Thursday can be on the strong side. The threat of showers and thunderstorms will continue on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday - thanks to the active and nearby stalled-out frontal boundary zone - and the chance of rain can even last into Monday, Memorial Day.
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The number of tornadoes across the nation has surged in the last four weeks to overall levels that are now well above normal for the current time of year. One of the catalysts for these severe weather outbreaks has been the continuation of colder-than-normal air masses that have been dropping south and east from Canada into the US and this has set up “battle zone” regions when interacting with warm, humid air flowing northward from the Gulf of Mexico. In addition, there have been and will continue to be multiple waves of energy riding across the northern US enhancing upward motion in many of these severe weather cases. This active weather pattern will continue through the rest of May and Tuesday afternoon and evening may feature yet another severe weather outbreak including tornadoes across portions of Wisconsin, Illinois, Iowa, and Missouri.
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The next couple of days will be dominated by a high pressure system that will build across the Mid-Atlantic region providing us with partial sunshine today and likely a full day of sunshine on Tuesday…quite a rarity in recent weeks. A cold frontal system will approach the area at mid-week and likely stall nearby later in the week causing unsettled conditions to return to the area. After a rain-free next couple of days, the threat of showers and thunderstorms will increase later Wednesday and especially on Thursday given the close proximity of the frontal system. Temperatures will be consistently on the warm side this week with highs today flirting with the 80 degree mark and then well up in the 80’s for much of the remainder of the week.
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Weak high pressure will build down into the region today from the northeast and it will help to contribute to a relatively cool next couple of days with plenty of clouds in the Mid-Atlantic. While showers are likely tonight and on Saturday, the chance of rain will diminish later Sunday and plenty of sunshine is likely to begin the new work week on Monday. second half of the weekend looks to be rain-free and some sunshine is likely to return on Sunday. Temperatures on both weekend days are likely to hold in the 60’s for highs, but then climb well up into the 70’s on Monday with the return of abundant sunshine.
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Slow-moving low pressure will meander offshore today, but it should be far enough away to allow for sunshine in the region which will help to boost temperatures to well up in the 70’s by later this afternoon. Weak high pressure will try to build down from the northeast on Friday and it’ll play a role in cooler-than-normal conditions expected here for the weekend. While there can be plenty of clouds this weekend and some shower activity on Saturday, neither weekend day should be a total washout with plenty of rain-free time to go along with those cool conditions.
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Slow-moving low pressure will slide to our south and east during the next 24 hours and produce cool, damp conditions in the I-95 corridor with an onshore flow of air. Weak high pressure is to push in on Friday providing a break in the action, but another slow-moving low will bring us a threat for rain on Saturday and Sunday as the overall active weather pattern continues across the nation.
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Slow-moving low pressure will impact the region with periods of rain from later today into Thursday and there can be a couple of thunderstorms mixed in as well. This system will slide to our south and it’ll finally give way to weak high pressure at the end of the week. Another period of unsettled weather is coming this weekend with additional rain likely in the Mid-Atlantic region.
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High pressure will be in control of the weather as we begin the new work week, but unsettled weather is on the way back. Slow-moving low pressure will impact the region with showers from later tomorrow into Wednesday and then another low pressure system can result in another round of rain here from later Friday into Saturday. High pressure will move in for a brief appearance in between these two systems making for a partly sunny and comfortable day on Thursday.
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An upper-level trough will rotate over the Mid-Atlantic region today and it will be followed close behind by a second system that will keep it very unsettled around here right into Sunday, Mother’s Day. There will be occasional showers today and it will be unseasonably cool with an ocean flow of air keeping temperatures well below-normal for this time of year. It stays on the cool and unsettled side this weekend with temperatures likely confined to the middle 60’s for highs on both days and there will be the threat of showers from later tomorrow into the day on Sunday. High pressure takes over early next week and it’ll warm up on Monday with the return of sunshine.
One final note, there has been a lot of activity on the sun in recent days with a very large sunspot region known officially as AR3664 having unleashed as many as five coronal mass ejections towards Earth. One of the main ejections will arrive into Earth’s upper atmosphere on Saturday, May 11th, and it can spark geomagnetic storms as can a couple to follow close behind later this weekend. Watch for auroras as far south as Virginia during this weekend event which is being classified as a category 4 “severe” geomagnetic storm…rarely seen in recent years.
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A complex and unsettled weather pattern is in store for the Mid-Atlantic region during the next couple of days that will include some rain, noticeably cooler conditions, and maybe a thunderstorm or two along the way. An upper-level trough will push east from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic region and help to generate these unsettled conditions with an initial shower threat increasing for us during today’s mid-day and afternoon hours. It has turned cooler compared to recent days and will become even cooler on Friday to go along with periods of rain as we close out the work week. It stays on the cool and unsettled side this weekend with temperatures likely confined to the 60’s for highs on both days and the threat of showers from time-to-time.
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