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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: HSV

7:00 AM | *Unsettled weather to start the week in the Tennessee Valley*

Paul Dorian

Unsettled weather begins the week here in the Tennessee Valley with occasional showers today and perhaps a thunderstorm or two mixed in. The combination of a strong ridge to our east and strong trough to our west will lead to the unsettled conditions here for the next day or so, but improvement comes for the second half of the week and it’ll turn slightly cooler as well.

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6:00 AM | *Still somewhat unsettled today with the chance of PM showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

The weather remains somewhat unsettled today with the threat of PM showers and thunderstorms as an upper-level trough pushes through the Great Lakes region. The overall weather pattern will become more settled for the weekend and early part of next week with sunshine prevailing on each day and temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80’s for afternoon highs.  

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**An active tropical scene with Tropical Storm “Humberto” and the likely-to-be named “Imelda” which can impact the Bahamas this weekend and potentially the Southeast US**

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin is quite active with three tropical systems of note as we head towards the end of September. There is a newly named Tropical Storm Humberto situated to the northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, a likely-to-be named Imelda which is now located near the Dominican Republic, and a weakening Hurricane Gabrielle in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean. It is the likely-to-be named Imelda that may be of most concern at this point as it could threaten the Bahamas this weekend and potentially has a chance of impacting the Southeast US.

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6:00 AM | *Setting up for a nice weekend with plenty of sunshine on Saturday and Sunday and moderately warm conditions*

Paul Dorian

The weather remains quite unsettled today with the threat of showers and thunderstorms as an upper-level trough drops into the Great Lakes. After a possible lingering shower on Friday, the overall weather pattern will become more settled by the weekend with sunshine prevailing on both Saturday and Sunday and temperatures climbing into the low-to-mid 80’s for afternoon highs.  

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**Two tropical systems to dance with each other off the east coast in coming days...”Fujiwhara effect” makes for a challenging forecast**

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin is quite active as we head towards the end of September with three tropical systems currently on the playing field including a “major” Hurricane Gabrielle which is now racing off to the east-northeast and is no threat to the US. In fact, Hurricane Gabrielle could impact the Azores Islands and Portugal down the road in a weakened state after crossing over the cooler waters of the North Atlantic.

Meanwhile, the other two tropical systems pose more of a challenge in terms of forecasting their eventual paths and magnitudes. It appears quite likely that both systems will reach named tropical storm classification and potentially, both may climb to hurricane status. It also appears quite likely that these two systems will end up doing some sort of a dance around each other for awhile (“Fujiwhara effect”) and at least one may come uncomfortably close to the US east coast and we may not know the end of the story until we get ten or so days out from now.

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6:00 AM | *An unsettled week with multiple chances of showers and thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

The week begins with an upper-level trough centered over the Great Lakes and it will contribute to unsettled conditions around here. With increasing moisture and the trough to our north, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase around here later today, and the threat of rain is likely on Tuesday as well. Unsettled weather will continue at mid-week and for the late week with additional chances of showers and thunderstorms.

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