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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

7:00 AM (Sunday) | ****Accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor at the front end of an Arctic invasion…several inches on the table…brutal cold to follow****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure over the southeastern US early this morning will intensify as it pushes northeastward to a position off the Mid-Atlantic coastline by early this evening and then to near the New England coast by later tonight. Snow or rain changing to snow will break out today across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and several inches is possible by the time the system winds down later this evening. Bitter cold air will follow the snow for much of the week ahead with single digit overnight lows on the table and some spots may even touch the zero-degree mark. A mid-week winter storm will have a southern US focus likely producing accumulating snow and/or ice from Texas-to-northern Florida-to-the Carolina coastline…likely staying to the south and east of the Mid-Atlantic region. A third storm system may ride up the east coast by the end of the week with some snow possible in the Mid-Atlantic region in the late Thursday/early Friday time period.

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Sat. PM - ****Accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Sunday at the front end of an Arctic invasion…several inches on the table…brutal cold to follow with near zero possible****

Paul Dorian

The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer across the nation with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.

This cold weather pattern will come with as many as three threats of snow and ice during the next week to ten days. On Sunday, low pressure will form along the incoming Arctic frontal boundary zone and likely produce several inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US - and this includes in the big cities along the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Boston. Another storm is destined to form over the Gulf region by mid-week and its focus could be on the southern states with significant snow and ice a possibility from Texas to the Carolinas…the snow shield can potentially work its way into the Mid-Atlantic region. Yet another system can again develop way down in the southern states by the end of next week or during the subsequent weekend.

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*****Accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday at front end of an Arctic invasion…several inches on the table I-95 corridor…brutal cold to follow with zero degrees a possibility*****

Paul Dorian

The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer across the nation with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long, long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.

This cold weather pattern will come with as many as three threats of snow and ice during the next week to ten days. On Sunday, low pressure will form along the incoming Arctic frontal boundary zone and likely produce several inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US - and this includes in the big cities along the I-95 corridor. Another storm is destined to form over the Gulf region by mid-week and its focus could be on the southern states with significant snow and ice a possibility down there. Yet another system can again develop way down in the southern states by the end of the next week or during the subsequent weekend.

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1:15 PM | ****The worst that winter has to offer...widespread brutal cold with a Siberian connection...multiple snow and ice threats****

Paul Dorian

The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long, long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.

This Arctic invasion will come with multiple snow and ice threats including one later Sunday into Sunday night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with several inches on the table, and another one at mid-week which could have a focus on the southern US. And, in the very short-term, snow is already falling today across the Great Lakes region with accumulations expected there on the order of a few inches, and occasional snow is likely to make its way into the DC-to-Philly-NYC corridor for the afternoon and early evening hours with accumulations possible of a coating to an inch or two.

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****An Arctic invasion gets underway early this weekend...Arctic front reaches eastern US on Sunday with accumulating snow a threat...bitter cold for Inauguration Day...additional storm threats****

Paul Dorian

An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by the early part of the weekend as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies.  Temperatures are going to fall to well below-normal levels across much of the nation for the bulk of next week which is quite impressive indeed considering this is right around the time of year with the lowest “normal” temperatures.

The Arctic front at the leading edge of the cold air outbreak will reach the eastern states on Sunday and a wave of low pressure is likely to form right along its boundary zone. This Arctic wave could produce some accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic region from later Sunday into Sunday night. Another storm system could develop way down in the Gulf region by the middle of next week potentially bringing snow and ice to parts of the southern and eastern US. Looking ahead, there is even the chance for a third system to form across the southern states by the end of next week.

One final note, even before we get to the interesting weather of this weekend and next week, there can be some snow in the near-term across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.

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3:00 PM | ***Widespread bitter cold air overspreads the nation next week...multiple storm threats as well...wintry weather impact for Inauguration Day and again for the southern states***

Paul Dorian

Widespread bitter cold air looks like it will overspread the nation next week and there can be multiple storm threats as well. Temperatures are likely to fall to well below-normal levels across much of the nation which is quite impressive considering the 3rd week of January is - from a climatological point-of-view - the coldest week of the year in many areas. An Arctic front is going to head into the eastern states later in the weekend and it will be at the leading edge of this incoming Arctic air mass...some of which may have its origins on the Siberian side of the North Pole. A wave of low pressure may form along the Arctic frontal boundary zone early next week potentially producing some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from late Sunday into Monday (Inauguration Day). Another storm threat could come at mid-week with its origins way down south and perhaps there will even be a third one during the late week time period.

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12:00 PM | ***Widespread bitter cold air overspreads the nation next week...storm threats as well...wintry weather impacts possible for Inauguration Day and for the Deep South (again)***

Paul Dorian

This will be a relatively quiet week across the nation despite another Arctic blast that arrives tonight in the eastern states, but next week looks like a different story. Widespread bitter cold air looks like it will overspread the nation next week and there can be multiple storm threats as well. Temperatures are likely to fall to far below-normal levels across much of the nation in what is from a climatological point-of-view, already the coldest week of the year in many areas.

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10:45 AM | ***Significant snow and ice across the southern states from New Mexico to Virginia...snow coming to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor...preliminary accumulation and arrival time estimates***

Paul Dorian

This cold and active weather pattern will result in another storm system in the short-term and this one will have a major impact on the southern states from New Mexico to the Carolinas with significant snow and disruptive ice. Low pressure will begin to organize over the Texas Gulf coast later today which is much farther to the south compared to the storm system earlier this week that originated over the central Plains. Cold air has penetrated all the way down to the Gulf coast setting the stage for this potentially crippling winter weather event in many southern locations.

This low pressure will push slowly to the east-northeast on Friday from the Deep South to the coastal waters of North Carolina by early Saturday and then continue on a track to the east-northeast of there into the open waters of the western Atlantic. While support in the upper atmosphere will be somewhat limited for the surface low pressure system, accumulating snow is likely to overspread the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor on Friday night and continue into Saturday morning with a coating to as much as 2-3 inches possible in some areas.  

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12:45 PM | ***Significant snow and ice across the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas...a light snow event for the Mid-Atlantic region***

Paul Dorian

This cold and active weather pattern will produce another storm system in the short-term and this one will have a major impact on the southern states from Texas to the Carolinas with significant snow and disruptive ice. Low pressure will organize over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later today which is much farther to the south compared to the most recent storm system that originated over the central Plains. Cold air has penetrated all the way into the Deep South during the past couple of days setting the stage for this upcoming winter event.

This storm system will push to the northeast on Friday from the Deep South to the coastal waters of the southern Mid-Atlantic by mid-day on Saturday. The surface low will have little support in the upper atmosphere as a “positively-tilted” trough axis will be limited in its generation of upward motion. While snow is likely in the Mid-Atlantic region from late Friday night into early Saturday, it is likely to be an overall light event with accumulations probably limited to the range of a coating to a couple of inches.

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11:00 AM | ***Monitoring a late week/early weekend storm threat...significant snow/ice in southern states...some snow possible in Mid-Atlantic, but it looks like a light event***

Paul Dorian

This cold and active weather pattern threatens to produce another storm system later this week that can have an impact from the Deep South to the eastern seaboard. Low pressure will organize over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week...much farther to the south compared to the most recent storm system which originated over the central Plains. As such, there can be an impact in the Deep South and including the potential of accumulating snow from Dallas-to-Little Rock-to-Memphis and a swath of disruptive ice from Texas to the Carolinas.

After that, the low pressure system likely heads towards the eastern seaboard and the exact track will be critical as well as the timing of its intensification along the coast in determining how much impact there can be in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. A rapid intensification of the surface low along the Mid-Atlantic coastline could mean significant accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Friday night into Saturday. However, if the system doesn’t intensify significantly until it passes to the north and east of the Mid-Atlantic region - the most likely scenario - then any snow would likely be on the light side.

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