Hurricane Laura has reached “major” hurricane status as a category 3 storm and it should intensify into a category 4 system this afternoon as it heads on a collision course with the Texas/Louisiana border region and expected landfall later tonight. Hurricane Laura intensified rapidly during the past 24 hours in a favorable environment of low wind shear and very warm sea surface temperatures and continues to intensify today - now just a bit under the required levels for a category 4 classification. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall later tonight, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states on Thursday producing heavy rainfall, severe weather, and damaging wind gusts. By the early part of the weekend, the remains of Hurricane Laura will turn to the east and get intertwined with a frontal system and an incoming vigorous upper-level trough to potentially produce some heavy rainfall in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Once off the Mid-Atlantic coast, the remnants of Hurricane Laura could actually re-intensify as it moves out over the warm waters of the western Atlantic.
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Hurricane Laura could become a “major” hurricane before making landfall late Wednesday night or early Thursday likely somewhere near the Texas/Louisiana border. Hurricane Laura has cleared the island of Cuba and is now pushing over the very warm waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The combination of weak wind shear and very high sea surface temperatures will contribute to rapid intensification over the next 24-36 hours. After Hurricane Laura makes landfall in the western Gulf coastal region, its story line will not be over. Its remains will push northward into the south-central states and result in heavy rainfall and potential severe weather and then the remnants may turn to the east, interact with a frontal system, and potentially produce heavy rainfall and severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic region early in the upcoming weekend.
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Tropical Storm Laura is a growing threat for the coastline region of Texas and Louisiana with a possible landfall late Wednesday. Tropical Storm Laura is very likely to intensify into hurricane status once out over the open warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico and it could become a “major” hurricane (i.e., category 3 or higher). Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Marco has weakened as it nears the central Gulf coastal region due to wind shear in its vicinity. The low-level circulation center of Tropical Storm Marco has been displaced from the main area of convection (thunderstorms) and it will tend to dissipate over the next few days.
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The very active 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season continues and there is likely to a “double-strike” of tropical storms on the central/eastern Gulf of Mexico by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Marco is now out over the open waters of the very warm Gulf of Mexico and is likely headed towards a landfall on Monday in the central Gulf region (Louisiana). Tropical Storm Marco is now flirting with hurricane status and its trek over the very warm water of the Gulf could give it the boost needed to attain category one hurricane status. Tropical Storm Laura is currently interacting with the island of Hispaniola and it too is likely to make a run towards the central Gulf region (Louisiana/Texas border region) by the middle of the week. Tropical Storm Laura may also get a boost from the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico which could boost it to hurricane status before landfall later in the week.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very active start and two systems are likely to have a high impact on the Gulf of Mexico by the early and middle parts of next week. One system is likely to cross over or right near the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico in the near-term and then push over the western part of the Gulf of Mexico and head towards the Texas/Louisiana border region. A second system is likely headed near or over the northern Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico, Haiti/Dominican Republic, and Cuba in the near-term and then perhaps through the Florida Straits before entering the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Both of these systems are likely to intensify into named tropical storms status – one would be “Laura” and the other “Marco” – and perhaps even to hurricane status before possible landfalls next week as high sea surface temperatures will aid in further intensification.
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The 2020 Atlantic Basin tropical season has gotten off to a very busy start and a parade of systems is going to keep it busy right through the remainder of August. There are now two tropical depressions in the Atlantic Basin which are likely to reach tropical storm status in coming days with the Gulf of Mexico the likely high impact zone by the early or middle of next week. A third tropical wave has reached the west coast of Africa and there is yet another wave situated over the central part of Africa. A “teleconnection” index known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) which tracks an eastward-moving tropical disturbance supports the idea for increased tropical activity over the next couple of week. In addition, the latter part of August is a time of year when tropical activity tends to ramp up as sea surface temperatures climb towards their peak supporting the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin.
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The overall weather pattern will remain very unsettled in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region right though the upcoming weekend with the threat for more torrential downpours and localized flash flooding; especially, south of the PA/MD border. The combination of an extremely humid air mass, a stalled out frontal boundary zone, and multiple low pressure systems should provide enough “lift” in the atmosphere to continue to produce heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2+ inches per hour. Given the already very well-saturated grounds, this additional rainfall can lead to some serious localized flash flooding conditions. With limited wind flow in the lower atmosphere, any shower or thunderstorm that develops in this pattern will be slow-moving and potentially resulting in a few inches of rain over a relatively short period of time.
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The overall weather pattern will remain quite unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic region over the next several days with the threat for more torrential downpours with rates of 2+ inches per hour and flash flooding conditions. The combination of an extremely humid air mass, a stalled out frontal boundary zone, and multiple low pressure systems should be able to provide enough “lift” in the atmosphere to result in heavy rainfall in coming days and given the already well-saturated grounds, this can lead to some serious flash flooding. In fact, there were torrential downpours in the pre-dawn hours across northern Virginia that resulted in damage to roadways in places like Manassas Park and the entire DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor remains under “flash flood watches” as a result of the potential for more heavy rainfall and saturated grounds.
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The good news is that “Isaias” is accelerating to the northeast and the wild weather should wind down later this afternoon in much of the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, the sun could actually return in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region later today. The bad news is that there is another several hours to get through before we get to that point with some pretty rough weather including more flooding rainfall, powerful and potentially damaging wind gusts, numerous power outages and isolated tornadoes. By later tonight, “Isaias” will race across interior New England on its way to southeastern Canada and the weather in the Mid-Atlantic region will improve markedly overnight and on Wednesday.
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“Isaias” stayed off the east coast of Florida on Sunday as it pushed slowly to the northwest while maintaining strong tropical storm status. The center of “Isaias” is now moving due north and has reached the latitude of the Georgia/Florida border region. “Isaias” should begin a gradual turn to the northeast later today and will likely make landfall tonight in the Carolinas - perhaps in the border region of South and North Carolina. There is a chance that “Isaias” re-gains category one hurricane status before it makes landfall as it continues to push over some very warm waters of the Gulf Stream and encounters less wind shear.
After that, “Isaias” will move northeast along the Mid-Atlantic’s I-95 corridor and become a major rain and wind producer in the DC, Philly and New York City metro regions on Tuesday and Tuesday night. There is the potential for several inches of rain in these areas along with strong sustained winds and potentially damaging wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and flash flooding. Numerous power outages are on the table in the Mid-Atlantic region during this upcoming event. “Isaias” will pick up speed as it pushes to the north/northeast over the next 24-48 hours reaching the interior sections of northern New England by early Wednesday.
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