We have reached the mid-point of September and this is climatologically-speaking right around the peak time of the Atlantic Basin tropical season. True to form, there is a now a tropical storm named “Fiona” over the central Atlantic and it is likely to impact the Caribbean islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola later this weekend. Beyond that, it is somewhat unclear as to where Fiona will travel with one scenario featuring a continued movement to the west and towards the Gulf of Mexico and a second possibility with a “curvature to the north” over the Bahamas and then the western Atlantic off the eastern seaboard.
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The tropical season in the Atlantic Basin officially got underway on June 1st and there is a growing threat for Florida from a system now located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. An area of showers and thunderstorms has better organized over the last 24 hours or so over the northwest Caribbean as atmospheric conditions are becoming more and more favorable for intensification. This system is likely to become the first named storm of the 2022 season (would be “Alex”) and is increasingly likely to bring heavy rainfall to western Cuba, central and southern Florida including the Keys, and to the Bahama Island chain.
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There was a severe weather outbreak yesterday across the Deep South and Tennessee Valley and many of the same catalysts will move in the eastern states by later today. At the surface, strong low pressure will move from the Great Lakes into western Quebec and it’ll help to lift a warm front across our area paving the way for a surge in temperatures into the 70’s in many spots. This surge in temperatures will be aided by intervals of sunshine that should develop later today just ahead of a strong cold frontal system. This front will move from west-to-east and it’ll approach the I-95 corridor region by the end of the day.
In the upper atmosphere, a complex weather pattern will feature multiple jet streaks and numerous shortwaves - all leading to increasing upward motion later today/tonight centered right over the Mid-Atlantic region. Showers will be of the isolated-to-scattered variety for the bulk of the day; however, more numerous showers will overspread the region by the early evening hours. In addition, the threat for severe thunderstorm activity will increase as we go through the evening hours with damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes on the table.
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A severe weather outbreak on Wednesday and Wednesday night is coming to the same part of the nation that was hit hard last week including the Deep South, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. One of the highest weather risks in this region will be for damaging wind gusts aided by strong jet streaks in multiple levels of the atmosphere. In addition, tornadoes may become rather numerous with many ingredients coming together in the atmosphere for rotation to form in many locations. The severe weather threat will shift to the eastern states on Thursday - albeit not quite as high - as a strong cold front pushes towards the coast and damaging wind gusts will again be on the table. Looking ahead, cold air outbreaks will likely continue for the central and eastern US into at least the middle of April and this will likely result in additional severe weather outbreaks.
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Spring season has begun and with it comes the threat of severe weather across much of the southern US during the next few days. Many ingredients are coming together for a severe weather event later today and tonight that will be focused on the central and eastern parts of Texas and this threat zone will shift slightly to the east on Tuesday encompassing the region from Louisiana-to-Mississippi-to-Alabama. A primary culprit in this unfolding scenario is an expansive upper-level trough whose base is now centered over the Southwest US and will shift only slightly to the east on Tuesday. In addition, there is a clash of air masses setting up in this part of the nation with cold, dry air sweeping eastward from the southwestern states into a very warm and humid air mass out ahead of it over the eastern half of Texas.
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It looks like there will be a very active frontal passage in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later tomorrow night into early Friday. Temperatures will surge on Thursday ahead of the strong cold front and showers will become numerous on Thursday night. In fact, some of the rain can briefly fall on the heavy side later tomorrow night into early Friday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture.
Of more concern, however, is the likelihood for powerful winds and there can be potentially damaging wind gusts with scattered power outages certainly on the table. The likely time period of greatest concern will be in the hour or two immediately following the passage of the surface cold front associated with an expected surge in pressure and a shift in wind direction. The likely location of greatest concern for these possible damaging wind gusts will be along coastal sections from Virginia-to-Maine. Moderately chilly air will follow the early Friday frontal passage and then a reinforcing shot of cold arrives on Saturday supported by a strong wave aloft that can result in snow shower activity across the northeastern states.
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It looks like there will be a very active frontal passage in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US from later Thursday night into early Friday. Temperatures will surge on Thursday ahead of the strong cold front and showers will become numerous by Thursday night. In fact, some of the rain can briefly fall on the heavy side later Thursday night into early Friday and there can be a thunderstorm or two mixed into the picture. Of more concern, however, is the likelihood for powerful winds from later Thursday night into early Friday and there can be potentially damaging wind gusts (i.e., power outages are on the table); especially, near and along the eastern seaboard from Virginia-to-Maine.
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The slow-moving Arctic front that has been the focus area of significant snow, ice and rain in recent days has crossed through the I-95 corridor region this morning and temperatures have responded accordingly by dropping quickly from very mild early day levels. As a result, plain rain that continues to fall at this time can begin to freeze on some untreated surfaces later in the day and sleet and/or snow can mix in as well by day’s end. Temperatures will continue to drop in the nighttime hours so any still-standing water will certainly freeze as the Arctic air mass arrives in full. Overall impacts of the icing in the immediate I-95 corridor region will be rather limited since drier air will tend to inhibit any appreciable precipitation amounts not long after temperatures drop to the freezing mark or below.
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Quite a muddy mess in the Mid-Atlantic region today with occasional rain, snowmelt, and some patchy fog as well - all out ahead of a slow-moving Arctic cold frontal system that has wreaked havoc on much of the heartland during the past couple of days with snow, ice and rain. That cold front will inch its way across the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor tomorrow morning and an Arctic air mass will filter into the region from the northwest-to-southeast. After a very mild start early in the day along the immediate I-95 corridor, temperatures will fall throughout the remainder of Friday following the passage of the Arctic front. As a result, any plain rain that is falling early tomorrow can begin to freeze on some untreated surfaces by mid-day or early afternoon across suburban locations to the north and west. The rain can also mix with or change to sleet and/or snow for a brief time later in the day on Friday. It does appear that the icing potential in this case will be rather limited in nature around here as drier air will tend to inhibit any appreciable amounts of precipitation while we are on the cold side of the front. Temperatures are likely to continue to drop tomorrow night which can lead to a quick freeze-up of any standing water that still remains.
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Many ingredients are going to come together that will allow for explosive intensification of a storm system over the western Atlantic Ocean between mid-day today and late Saturday. In fact, it appears that this low pressure system will easily surpass the requirement of a central pressure drop of at least 24 millibars in a 24-hour period to be classified as a “bomb cyclone”. Some snow is likely to break out today across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US and then the main event will come tonight and Saturday from this intensifying storm. Very cold air will push into the eastern states during the height of the storm on Saturday and it’ll be bitter cold tomorrow night with brutal wind chills. This Arctic blast will plunge all the way down to southern Florida and even to Cuba. Miami is likely to experience lows in the 30’s this weekend for the first time since 2010.
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