The weather map is quite busy currently across North America with intense high pressure ridges combined with deep troughs of low pressure and on top of that we have some tropical moisture on the playing field as well. A deep trough over the northeastern Pacific Ocean will help to spawn a rapidly intensifying storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later today through tomorrow with hurricane-force winds, tremendous rainfall in low-lying areas, and substantial snowfall in the inland, higher elevation locations that will be on the order of several feet in some spots. This storm system will become a slow-mover and there will be lingering effects from northern California to Oregon and Washington all the way through the second half of the week.
Another upper-level trough will slide south and east during the next couple of days from the north-central states and deepen markedly as it reaches the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by later Thursday. An initial low pressure system will head to the Great Lakes while a secondary forms near the northern Mid-Atlantic coastline. This unfolding storm system will also become a slow-mover during the latter part of the week and will bring with it beneficial rains, accumulating snows across inland, higher elevation locations, and a prolonged period of strong NW winds.
Looking ahead, there are signs for multiple cold air outbreaks to make their way from northern Canada into the central and eastern US as we push through the remainder of November and into the early part of December...quite a winter look to the overall pattern that should include threats of snow as well.
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Quite an active and somewhat unusual weather pattern is developing across North America and one that will feature multiple intense upper-level ridges of high pressure and deep troughs of low pressure. One result of this overall pattern will be a powerful storm system that will slam into the Pacific Northwest from later tomorrow into Wednesday. This storm will feature explosive intensification with as much as a 70 millibar drop in 24 hours of its central pressure yielding the strength of a “category 4” hurricane and easily classifying it as a “bomb cyclone”. Another significant storm system will develop in this active weather pattern during the late week bringing with it rain, accumulating snows, and a sustained period of strong winds across the Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast US.
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Another “major” hurricane may be headed towards Florida’s Gulf coast with a possible mid-week landfall right near the Tampa Bay region. “Milton” became a named tropical storm on Saturday over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico and it is likely to attain hurricane status by later Sunday as it begins a move to the east. Given the generally favorable environmental conditions, Milton could then become a “major” hurricane as early as Monday as it continues on a trek towards Florida’s west coast.
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The overall weather pattern across the nation remains quite active as we push into the second week of May and this includes continuing threats of severe weather. Earlier this week, severe weather took place across Oklahoma and Texas with numerous tornadoes reported and the threat zone on Tuesday shifted to the Ohio Valley. Today’s greatest threat of severe weather will be focused on the Middle Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and, once again, tornadoes will be on the table. The severe weather threat on Thursday will shift a bit to the east and south and likely extend all the way across the Gulf states from Texas-to-Georgia and up along the eastern seaboard to around the Delmarva Peninsula/southern New Jersey region.
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Another round of accumulating snow is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday and it should get underway early in the day in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. This is a dynamic storm system that will have strong upper-level support and complicating factors will include small-scale heavier snow bands that are likely to develop and an inverted (aka “norlun”) trough that will extend northwestward back to the Mid-Atlantic region from the low pressure center out over the western Atlantic. On the heels of the snow, another Arctic air mass will plunge into the eastern US for the weekend and lower teens or even upper single digit overnight lows will be possible in many suburban locations. Looking ahead, the Arctic chill will dissipate early next week and we’ll turn warmer-than-normal for the middle and latter parts with rain likely back into the forecast.
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An intensifying storm system over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean will be quite impactful during the next couple of days all the way from the Carolinas to Long Island. Heavy rain, powerful winds, beach erosion and coastal flooding are all on the table from this storm as it pushes in a general north-to-northwest direction during the next couple of days and even isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. This system will take on tropical characteristics as it heads towards an early Saturday landfall in eastern North Carolina - potentially intensifying into a category 1 hurricane. Later this weekend, as the storm reaches the Chesapeake Bay region, it will slow down and begin a turn from the general northward direction to northeast. It’ll likely then cross the Delaware Bay and heads toward southern New Jersey in a weakened state and its slow pace will result in rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic region all the way into later Sunday.
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Hurricane Lee has weakened in recent hours and is now classified as a category 1 “minimal” hurricane as it heads on a northerly track. It is likely to be downgraded to tropical storm status (or “post-tropical”) by the weekend as it moves over colder waters of the NW Atlantic and reaches higher latitudes near coastal Maine/Atlantic Canada. However, Hurricane Lee remains a large storm and its pressure gradient field will remain intense likely resulting in an impact that will be felt across eastern New England and Atlantic Canada with powerful winds and heavy rainfall. Hurricane-force winds are on the table along coastal Maine and Atlantic Canada with tropical storm force winds likely along coastal Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Rhode Island. The expected track of Hurricane Lee will place the storm right near or over the Bay of Fundy by later Saturday – a bay known for its extremely high tides and tremendous tidal variations.
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Hurricane Lee remains as a “major” category 3 system and has begun its turn to the north as it becomes increasingly influenced by an upper-level trough over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. This turn to the north will come with gradually increasing forward speed and will bring Hurricane Lee to the west of Bermuda on Thursday where there will be tropical storm conditions. As an upper-level ridge intensifies over the NW Atlantic late in the week, Hurricane Lee may actually take a turn slightly to the left which will bring it close to southeastern New England. Hurricane Lee is then likely to become “post-tropical” as it potentially reaches coastal Maine/New Brunswick later in the weekend. Despite movement over colder waters before its landfall and a likely slight weakening in central pressure, the pressure gradient will remain intense between this powerful storm system and intensifying high pressure to the north. As a result, a significant impact is possible this weekend from eastern New England to Atlantic Canada (New Brunswick, Nova Scotia) with torrential rains and hurricane-force winds on the table.
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A tropical wave that pushed off of Africa’s west coast several days ago has officially become tropical depression #13 in the Atlantic Ocean. This system is likely to reach named tropical storm status within 24 hours or so (will be named Lee) and very well could intensify to “major” hurricane status by the upcoming weekend. The overall environment will become increasingly conducive for intensification of the soon-to-be named tropical system in coming days as it continues on a long track across the Atlantic Ocean. Wind shear will relax as an upper-level ridge builds nearby and it’ll move over very warm waters to the east of the Lesser Antilles. Looking ahead, it appears this system may push to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles - avoiding the Caribbean Sea - and then head on a course towards the US east coast as a “major” hurricane. Whether or not this developing tropical storm ever reaches the US east coast is simply too early to call.
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We have entered the second half of August and this is typically when tropical activity ramps up in the Atlantic Basin. Indeed, there are a couple of impressive waves to watch in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean and there may be a threat to deal with in the eastern US/Gulf of Mexico by the last week of August; however, of more immediate concern is the current activity in the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is a growing chance that significant moisture from a tropical system makes its way into the Southwest US by later this weekend and early next week - and this includes a very real threat for excessive rainfall across southern California. In addition, winds may become quite high depending on the ultimate storm track that this developing tropical system undertakes.
Elsewhere, a building ridge of high pressure in the upper part of the atmosphere will result in an intensifying heat wave by this weekend across the central states and it is likely to expand to the Great Lakes and Midwest. While the heat may ultimately expand all the way into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, this would be just a one or two day affair and the overall weather pattern for the northeastern states remains quite favorable for very comfortable air masses to reach this area from central Canada.
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