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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Sunday mid-day | ****Winter storm to impact southern Mid-Atlantic region…snow arrives in DC near midnight…before daybreak in Philly…little impact in NYC…a look ahead to more cold and storm threats****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify today as it treks eastward through the Tennessee Valley and reaches the coastal waters of the southern Mid-Atlantic by Monday evening. This system will continue to produce significant snowfall along the way with a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather later today and early tonight in the storm’s warm sector centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley region.

Snow should arrive in the DC metro region around midnight and into the Philly metro just before daybreak. The heaviest snow in both places will likely be on the front end meaning late tonight and during Monday morning. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation on Monday afternoon and then some areas will receive “backend” snow on Monday evening; especially, in the region from DC to the Delmarva to southern NJ. The advance of the snow shield to the north will be inhibited by very dry air stationed over the Northeast US. As such, the storm’s effects will be more limited in places like Philadelphia compared to Washington, D.C. and virtually nonexistent up across New York City. Looking ahead, all indications point to plenty of cold weather left in January – potentially some extreme cold – and multiple storm threats including the possibility of one by the weekend.

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****Major winter storm from central Plains to Mid-Atlantic with significant snow, disruptive ice…watch for “cold conveyor belt” snow on the backend...late week/weekend storm threat****

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify over the central Plains on Sunday and it will become a major winter storm with widespread impact as it treks eastward reaching the coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night. This system will produce significant snowfall along the way with more than a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather on Sunday in the storm’s warm sector over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. The storm arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night and precipitation can last all the way into Monday night in some sections thanks in part to the likely development of “cold conveyor belt” snow on the back end.

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6:15 AM | **A cold weekend shaping up...a chance of accumulating snow late Sunday night and Monday**

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front will approach the region today and it can produce a couple of snow showers in the area from later this afternoon into early this evening. The weekend will be quite cold with Arctic high pressure in control limiting our temperatures to the low-to-middle 30’s for afternoon highs on both days.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to intensify over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide from west-to-east by Sunday night and Monday producing a significant snowfall along the way across the Midwest. There is a chance for snow here on Monday, but the heaviest amounts may stay just to our south…stay tuned on that. This system will then slide off the east coast by Tuesday of next week and more Arctic air will follow encompassing a wide part of the nation.

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6:15 AM | ****A burst of snow later today with some accumulations possible...more accumulating snow from late Sunday night into late Monday with several inches on the table****

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front will approach the region later today and likely bring with it some snow shower activity and perhaps even a brief period of steadier snow that could result in accumulations of as much as 2 to 3 inches. The time period of concern for this quick burst of snow is roughly 2-7 pm…watch for slick spots. The weekend will be quite cold with Arctic high pressure in control limiting our temperatures to the lower 30’s for afternoon highs on both days.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to intensify over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide from west-to-east producing a significant snowfall along the way across the Midwest later Sunday and then likely reach the Philly metro region with accumulating snow by late Sunday night. Precipitation from this storm system can last all the way into Monday night with several inches of snowfall on the table. One possible complicating factor with respect to the snow accumulation amounts will be sleet which can mix into the picture; especially, just to the south and east of Philly across southern NJ and Delaware. This low pressure will then slide off the east coast on Tuesday and more Arctic air will follow encompassing a wide part of the nation.

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6:15 AM | ****A burst of snow possible later today...accumulating snow from late Sunday night into late Monday with several inches on the table...sleet/freezing rain potential factors as well****

Paul Dorian

An Arctic cold front will approach the region later today and likely bring with it some snow shower activity and perhaps even a brief period of steadier snow that could result in accumulations of a coating to an inch or so. The time period of concern for this quick burst of snow is roughly 2-6 pm…watch for slick spots, rain can also mix in at times. The weekend will be quite cold with Arctic high pressure in control limiting our temperatures to the lower 30’s for afternoon highs on both days.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to intensify over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide from west-to-east producing a significant snowfall along the way across the Midwest later Sunday and then likely reach the DC region with accumulating snow by late Sunday night. Precipitation from this storm system can last all the way into Monday night with several inches of snowfall on the table. One complicating factor with respect to the potential snow accumulation amounts will be the likelihood for some sleet and/or freezing rain to mix into the picture; especially, in the southern half of the metro region. This low pressure will then slide off the east coast on Tuesday and more Arctic air will follow encompassing a wide part of the nation.

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****A couple of snow events in the Mid-Atlantic…a burst of snow later Friday…an important snow threat for late Sunday night and Monday with several inches on the table****

Paul Dorian

A colder and active weather pattern is indeed unfolding for the central and eastern US and it is likely to bring two threats of snow to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several days. First, an upper-level wave will rotate around the base of a large-scale trough of low pressure later tomorrow and it can produce snow showers in the area and maybe even a period of steadier snow; primarily, in the region from DC/northern Delmarva-to-southeastern PA/southern NJ…small accumulations are on the table. A surge of Arctic air will follow the system later tomorrow night setting us up for a cold weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. A more important threat of snow comes for late Sunday night and Monday as low pressure moves eastward from the Midwest with significant accumulations on the table in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region including the DC-to-Philly corridor.

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6:15 AM | ***Snow or snow showers likely later tomorrow...accumulating snow threat on Monday***

Paul Dorian

It turns colder today and then even colder this weekend following the passage of a cold front on Friday night that will usher in Arctic air for Saturday and Sunday. The cold front can produce snow showers around here later tomorrow Friday - maybe even a period of steadier snow - and an Arctic high pressure system will take control by the weekend.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to organize over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide east by Sunday night and Monday producing a significant snowfall in the Midwest and there is a chance for accumulating snow here on Monday with at least a few inches on the table. This system will then slide off the east coast by Tuesday of next week and more Arctic air will encompass a wide part of the nation.

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6:15 AM | ***Snow or snow showers later tomorrow...accumulating snow threat late Sunday night and Monday***

Paul Dorian

It turns colder today and then even colder this weekend following the passage of a cold front on Friday night that will usher in Arctic air for Saturday and Sunday. The cold front can produce snow showers around here later tomorrow Friday - maybe even a period of steadier snow - and an Arctic high pressure system will take control by the weekend.

By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to organize over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide east by Sunday night and Monday producing a significant snowfall in the Midwest and there is a good chance for accumulating snow here on Monday with several inches on the table. This system will then slide off the east coast by Tuesday of next week and more Arctic air will encompass a wide part of the nation.

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