11:00 AM | ***Monitoring a late week/early weekend storm threat...significant snow/ice in southern states...some snow possible in Mid-Atlantic, but it looks like a light event***

A powerful jet streak in the upper atmosphere will contribute to the formation of low pressure over the southern states later this week. This system will likely bring significant snow and ice to parts of the southern US and then can have an impact in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US by the early part of the weekend. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

This cold and active weather pattern threatens to produce another storm system later this week that can have an impact from the Deep South to the eastern seaboard. Low pressure will organize over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico later this week...much farther to the south compared to the most recent storm system which originated over the central Plains. As such, there can be an important impact in the Deep South and including the potential of accumulating snow from Dallas-to-Little Rock-to-Memphis and a swath of disruptive ice from Texas to the Carolinas.

After that, the low pressure system likely heads towards the eastern seaboard and the exact track will be critical as well as the timing of its intensification along the coast in determining how much impact there can be in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. A rapid intensification of the surface low along the Mid-Atlantic coastline could mean significant accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Friday night into Saturday. However, if the system doesn’t intensify significantly until it passes to the north and east of the Mid-Atlantic region - the most likely scenario - then any snow would likely be on the light side.

In addition to the threat of accumulating snow in, for example, the zone from Dallas-to-Little Rock-to-Memphis, there can be significant icing late this week in much of the southern US from Texas to the Carolinas. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, Pivotal Weather

Significant snow/ice for southern states…light snow event likely in the Mid-Atlantic

This cold weather pattern for the central and eastern US is likely to continue well into the month of January and perhaps even into February and an active southern branch of the jet stream will assure that it remains quite active as well with multiple storm threats. Indeed, a strong jet streak later this week and weekend will set the stage for the development of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico storm. This system’s first impact will be across the southern states where cold air has penetrated on the backside of yesterday’s storm system which is now located over the western Atlantic. Significant snow is possible in the Dallas-Little Rock-to-Memphis corridor later this week and there can be a swath of very disruptive icing stretching from Texas to the Carolinas which, unfortunately, can lead to power outages in many areas.

Snow can accumulate in a big way later this week in parts of the southern US from Texas to the Tennessee Valley. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

After that, the low pressure system likely heads towards the eastern seaboard and the timing of its intensification along the coast will be critical in determining how much impact there can be in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Two of the players involved will be an upper-level wave of energy diving into the Baja California region and some northern stream energy dropping southeastward from Canada.

The timing of a potential “phase” between a northern stream wave of energy (top circle) and a southern stream (bottom circle) will dictate how much snow can fall by the weekend across the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

A rapid intensification of the surface low along the Mid-Atlantic coastline could mean significant accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Friday night into Saturday. However, if the system doesn’t intensify significantly until it passes to the north and east of the Mid-Atlantic region - the most likely scenario - then any snow would likely be on the light side.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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