It was a little past 1 AM on February 3rd, 1959 when American musicians Buddy Holly, Ritchie Valens and J.P. “The Big Bopper” Richardson were killed in a plane crash near Clear Lake, Iowa along with pilot Roger Peterson. Weather conditions were certainly contributing factors in the plane crash as there was poor visibility on that cold night with snow blowing across the runway. Hours before, Holly and his tour mates were on the eleventh night of their “Winter Dance Party” tour through the snow-covered Midwest. It was a Monday and a school night, but 1,100 teenagers crammed into the Surf Ballroom in Clear Lake, Iowa for two sold out shows with the second one ending around midnight. The event later became known as “The Day the Music Died” after singer-songwriter Don McLean referred to it as such in his 1971 song “American Pie” which paid homage to the tragedy of February 3rd, 1959.
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In the wake of the major weekend winter storm, a very cold weather pattern has set up across the eastern states, and it looks like it’ll be quite a memorable stretch both in terms of magnitude and duration. A long-wave trough parked over the eastern US is allowing for the reinforcement of Arctic air masses with an especially bitter one coming to the Mid-Atlantic region for the second half of the week. Low temperatures on Wednesday night, Thursday night, and Friday night are likely to flirt with the zero-degree mark in many locations and challenge low temperature records. In addition, there may be record low high temperatures later in the week with afternoon highs likely limited to the teens - even in the big cities.
In addition to the relentless bitter cold, it looks like a powerful storm system will form this weekend somewhere near the eastern seaboard. This system is likely to have its origins over the Gulf region and then push northeastward to near the east coast while intensifying dramatically. It is still too early to determine its ultimate path, but a close trek to the coast could indeed bring significant snowfall and strong winds to portions of the northeastern states.
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The current cold pattern across the eastern states is reminiscent of January 1986 when an Arctic air outbreak played a key role in the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster that took place 40 years ago from Wednesday on January 28th, 1986. NASA’s Space Shuttle orbiter Challenger (mission STS-51-L) broke apart 73 seconds into its flight leading to the deaths of its seven crew members. STS-51-L was the 25th American Space Shuttle Program flight since the program began in 1981. It was also the first mission to have a civilian on board, American teacher Christa McAuliffe. The spacecraft disintegrated over the Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Cape Canaveral, Florida at 11:39 EST (16:39 UTC). According to the Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident, weather conditions were likely one of the factors that contributed to the incident. Tests conducted during the subsequent investigation showed that O-rings were much less resilient at lower temperatures, but the extreme cold at the Kennedy Space Center was not the only weather factor involved with this tragedy. Wind shear aloft may have been a contributing factor as well with two different airstreams in the vicinity of the launch site of the Space Shuttle Challenger.
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December 1776 was a desperate time for General George Washington and the American Revolution. Morale was low, hope for winning the war was diminishing, and the Continental Army led by George Washington was thinning in numbers after many battles lost to the British. There was even talk of replacing General Washington with either General Charles Lee or General Horatio Gates. December began with lots of rain and muddy travel conditions for the men which did not help with their spirits. After retreating through New Jersey, they set up camp on the Pennsylvania side of the Delaware River where the army was met with very cold weather that led to plenty of ice on the water. All in all, things were not looking good for Washington's army. However, General George Washington devised a plan that would change the course of the war and the history of our nation.
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The weather on Oahu, Hawaii in the early morning hours of Sunday, December 7th, 1941 was not at all unusual for the time of year with mild temperatures and mainly clear skies. Unfortunately, the weather conditions on that particular day would play a role in the bombing of the U.S. naval base by Japanese fighter planes at Pearl Harbor near Honolulu, Hawaii. As Japanese fighters crossed the Pacific Ocean, they were given hope that their mission would succeed when the announcement was made of “clouds mostly over the mounts…visibility good”. It is believed that the decision to attack on that particular day had plenty to do with the projected favorable weather conditions.
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The weather in Dallas, Texas had been rainy, and the weather forecast was for more rain on November 22nd, 1963. If the forecast had turned out to be correct with more rain on that fateful day, then that would have likely meant that a plexiglass bubble top would have been used on President John F. Kennedy’s 1961 Lincoln Convertible on a planned motorcade through the Dallas metro region. But the weather cleared unexpectedly, the protective top was removed from the car, and shots rang out in the early afternoon hours at Dealey Plaza killing the 35th President and seriously wounding Texas Governor John Connally.
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There are signals that continue to point to an upcoming cold weather pattern for the central and eastern states as the early part of the winter season gets underway. These signs come from such diverse places as the stratosphere over the North Pole (re: Stratospheric Warming), the stratosphere over the tropics (re: QBO), and the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean (re: MJO).
To begin, it appears as though there will be a “Stratospheric Warming” event over the polar region of the Northern Hemisphere in coming days which is quite a rare occurrence for this early stage of the winter season. In fact, it appears there have been only two Stratospheric Warming events in recent history that took place during the month of November...2000 and 1968...and in both of those years the month of December was quite cold across the nation. One atmospheric phenomenon that supports the idea of one (or more) “Stratospheric Warming” event(s) this winter season is known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) which is a changing wind anomaly in the tropical lower stratosphere. When an “easterly” or “negative” phase of the QBO is combined with La Nina conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean – both of which represent the current situation - there is a strong tendency for an increase in “Stratospheric Warming” events and the disruption of the polar vortex. This particular teleconnection was one of the factors highlighted in the ”2025-2026 Winter Outlook” issued back in October.
Additionally, there is an oceanic-atmospheric phenomenon known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) that affects the weather patterns across the globe. The MJO is an eastward moving disturbance of clouds and rain that traverses the planet in the tropics and - depending on its location and the time of the year - it can contribute to colder-than-normal weather patterns across the central and eastern US.
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Fifty years have passed since a major storm over the Great Lakes helped to sink the SS Edmund Fitzgerald on Lake Superior taking the lives of all 29 crew members on November 10th, 1975. When launched on June 7, 1958, it was the largest ship on North America's Great Lakes, and to this day she remains the largest to have sunk there. The Edmund Fitzgerald was in the worst possible location during the worst weather of the ferocious storm. The wind and waves from the west hit the freighter broadside as it tried to flee south to safety in Whitefish Bay. The Edmund Fitzgerald was loaded with about 26,000 tons of taconite pellets on November 9th, 1975, at Superior, Wisconsin and was bound for Detroit, Michigan when the storm hit.
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Rapid changes in weather can be experienced in the northeastern US during the latter stages of October as to the west, cold Canadian air masses begin to regularly drop from Canada into the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest and to the east, the Atlantic Ocean remains relatively warm as it loses its stored summer heat more slowly than the continent. In fact, hurricanes can still form over the still relatively warm waters of the Atlantic Ocean and the contrast between the increasingly frequent cold air masses to the west and the warmth to the east often results in powerful storms just offshore. In late October 1991, several ingredients converged to create an immensely powerful storm that took on a few names including “The Halloween Nor’easter” or the “Unnamed Hurricane”. The most well-known name for this storm, however, is “The Perfect Storm” with a book and subsequent film of the same name.
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Hurricane Melissa has reached the southwestern coast of Jamaica as a category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 185 mph. The hurricane has turned to the northeast and should continue on this path during the next few days with an accelerated motion. After hitting Jamaica, Hurricane Melissa will cross over eastern Cuba – likely as a major hurricane – and then to the southeastern part of the Bahama Island chain in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. By late Thursday, Melissa could come very close to the island of Bermuda or move directly over as it picks up some forward speed and continues on a northeasterly direction...eventually bringing it out to the open waters of the North Atlantic by the upcoming weekend.
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