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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:00 AM | *Noticeably cooler today with a low-level east-to-northeast flow of air...becomes much warmer again on Saturday with the chance of showers and storms*

Paul Dorian

The passage of a “back door” cool front has ushered in noticeably cooler air to the Philly metro region and low-level winds will be consistent today from an east-to-northeast direction. The day should feature lots of clouds and scattered showers…perhaps a late day thunderstorm. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases for tonight, tomorrow, and tomorrow night as the “back door” cool front turns around and pushes to the north as a warm front. Any storm that occurs tonight through tomorrow night can be on the strong side. Following the passage of the warm front, it’ll turn much warmer on Saturday, but the intense heat from earlier in the week will not make a return. The weekend closes out with plenty of sunshine on Sunday, warm conditions, and a reduced chance of rain.

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*Deadly Hurricane Audrey slammed into southwest Louisiana 68 years ago from tomorrow as the strongest June hurricane and the earliest major to ever make landfall in the US*

Paul Dorian

Nowadays, when the people of New Orleans think of devastating hurricanes they think of Katrina, but before 2005, the most notorious storm name in Louisiana was Audrey. Sixty-eight years ago from Friday, Hurricane Audrey slammed into the southwest coast of Louisiana and became the strongest June hurricane and earliest major (category 3) to make landfall in the US. Hurricane Audrey killed hundreds of people – estimated to be somewhere between 400 and 500 - including many of whom to this day remain unidentified and tragically, about one-third of those were children. The high number of deaths - in an era without satellite imagery - were attributed to the storm moving ashore earlier and stronger than predicted while most people were sleeping.

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6:15 AM | **Still hot today with the chance of showers/storms...cooler on Friday after passage of back door cool front**

Paul Dorian

The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be remain hot here, but then it’ll turn cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).

There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.

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6:15 AM | **Turning cooler here today following the passage of a back door cool front**

Paul Dorian

The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be much reduced here today compared to the recent high heat and then it’ll turn even cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).

There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.

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6:15 AM | **Not as hot today and even cooler on Friday after passage of back door cool front**

Paul Dorian

The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been parked overhead during the past few days is now weakening and shifting to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure has built into southeastern Canada and this combination has resulted in the formation of a back door cool front across northern New England which will push southwestward during the next 24 hours to a position in the southern Mid-Atlantic by late Friday. As a result, temperatures will be reduced here today compared to the recent high heat and then it’ll turn even cooler on Friday as a low-level ocean flow of air develops behind the front (i.e., east-to-northeast winds).

There can be showers and thunderstorms from today into tomorrow during this temperature transition period and any storm that forms can be strong-to-severe. The back door cool front will then turn around on Saturday and push back to the north as a warm front resulting in quite warm and humid conditions on both Saturday and Sunday. There will be the chance of showers and thunderstorms on both weekend days, but neither should be a total washout.

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2:00 PM (Wednesday) - ***Back door cool front to break the back of the heat wave...transition to cooler conditions to come with showers and possible strong-to-severe thunderstorms***

Paul Dorian

Today will feature high heat and humidity once again in the Mid-Atlantic region and high temperature records for the date are likely to be set in many locations. There is relief on the way, however, thanks to a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England during the next couple of days. Temperatures will be much reduced in the Mid-Atlantic region by Friday afternoon as an ocean flow of air (east-to-northwest winds) develops following the passage of the back door cool front. The transition from today’s high heat and humidity to the cool down at the end of the week will come with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some of the storms can be strong-to-severe.

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***DCA reaches 99 degrees...one more day of intense heat and humidity...70's by Friday following back door cool frontal passage...scattered showers and strong storms between now and then***

Paul Dorian

The official high temperature yesterday recorded at Reagan National Airport (DCA) was 99 degrees which was just short of the record for the date. The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure parked overhead during the past couple of days will begin to break down later today and also shift slowly to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and the combination of these two systems will allow for the formation of a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England over the next couple of days. As a result, relief is in sight here in terms of temperatures and precipitation chances will be on the rise. There can be isolated shower and thunderstorm activity later today and early tonight and that threat of rain should increase on Thursday. Any storm that forms either late today or on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region can reach strong-to-severe levels. Unsettled weather conditions will continue on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and a look ahead to next week suggests temperatures could be quite reasonable as the calendar shifts from June to July.

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6:15 AM | ***Philly reaches 101 degrees...one more day of high heat and humidity...70's by Friday following back door cool frontal passage...scattered showers and strong storms between now and then***

Paul Dorian

The official high temperature yesterday recorded at Philly International Airport (PHL) was 101 degrees which broke a record for the date and was the first triple-digit reading since July 2012. The very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure parked overhead during the past couple of days will begin to break down later today and also shift slowly to the south. At the same time, surface high pressure will build across southeastern Canada and the combination of these two systems will allow for the formation of a back door cool front that will push southwestward from northern New England over the next couple of days. As a result, relief is in sight here in terms of temperatures (70’s on Friday) and precipitation chances will be on the rise. There can be scattered shower and thunderstorm activity later today and early tonight and that threat of rain should increase some on Thursday. Any storm that forms either late today or on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region can reach strong-to-severe levels. Unsettled weather conditions will continue on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday and a look ahead to next week suggests temperatures could be quite reasonable as the calendar shifts from June to July.

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