3:00 PM | ***Widespread bitter cold air overspreads the nation next week...multiple storm threats as well...wintry weather impact for Inauguration Day and again for the southern states***

Widespread bitter cold air will push across much of the nation early next week and some of this is likely reach the DC metro region in time for the swearing-in ceremony on Monday, January 20th (Inauguration Day). Next week’s Arctic blast will produce temperatures way below-normal at a time of the year when we are already at our lowest levels from a climatological point-of-view. Map courtesy ECMWF, Weather Bell Analytics

Overview

Widespread bitter cold air looks like it will overspread the nation next week and there can be multiple storm threats as well. Temperatures are likely to fall to well below-normal levels across much of the nation which is quite impressive considering the 3rd week of January is - from a climatological point-of-view - the coldest week of the year in many areas. An Arctic front is going to head into the eastern states later in the weekend and it will be at the leading edge of this incoming Arctic air mass...some of which may have its origins on the Siberian side of the North Pole. A wave of low pressure may form along the Arctic frontal boundary zone early next week potentially producing some snow in the Mid-Atlantic region for the period from late Sunday into Monday (Inauguration Day). Another storm threat could come at mid-week with its origins way down south and perhaps there will even be a third one during the late week time period.

Some of the air that reaches the Mid-Atlantic region early next week will have its origins from the other side of the North Pole over Siberia. Indeed “backward trajectory” models trace the origin of air parcels that reach the Mid-Atlantic region by Tuesday, January 21st, back to a land mass that is known for its brutally cold air this time of year.. Plot courtesy NOAA

Bitter cold next week and multiple storm threats

The colder-than-normal weather pattern that began earlier this month across the central and eastern US not only looks like it will be extend through the third week of January, but it is likely to go to more extreme levels. There are strong signs that the upper-level pattern across North America will evolve into one that can produce “cross-polar” flow which could allow for Siberian air to impact the Canadian and US side of the North Pole in coming days.

One of the catalysts of an active weather pattern next week - potentially with more than one storm threat - will be an active southern branch of the jet stream. This forecast map for the middle of next week depicts strong winds aloft extending all the way across the southern US and into the Mid-Atlantic region. This “jet streak” could help set the stage for a mid-week storm system that originates near the Gulf of Mexico. Map courtesy ECMWF, Pivotal Weather

By the early part of next week, a strong upper-level trough will develop across central Canada and extend southward into the south-central US. This large-scale upper-level trough will be the result of a phasing together of the northern jet stream with the southern jet and this will help to transport Arctic air from northern Canada into the US. In fact, the southern branch of the jet stream remains quite active through much of next week which increases the chance of storm development in the Deep South. A large part of the nation is likely to feature well below-normal temperatures for much of next week and this comes at a time of year when average temperatures are at their lowest levels in most areas. In other words, far below-normal temperatures during the 3rd week of January can certainly produce some impressive and potentially dangerous cold.

The influx of Arctic air next week is likely to have an impact all the way down into the Deep South which can result in more snow and ice across many southern states. This forecast map of “total freezing rain” during the next ten days sends up a red-flag warning of possible severe impacts down in the southern US during this upcoming cold wave. Map courtesy NOAA, Pivotal Weather

At the leading edge of the Arctic blast will be a cold frontal system that makes its way into the eastern states later this weekend. The progression of that cold front will likely slow down across the southeastern states and this opens the door for an Arctic wave forms along the frontal boundary zone.  As such, there is the chance that low pressure will push northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region by late in the weekend or early part of next week – and right into an increasingly cold air mass. In other words, this scenario could result in some snow for parts of the Mid-Atlantic region by later Sunday or Monday which happens to be Inauguration Day.

By Tuesday, January 21st, the bitter cold will be widespread across most of the nation with far below-normal temperatures during what is statistically-speaking the coldest time of the year. Map courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com (Dr. Ryan Maue, X)

With an active southern branch of the jet stream well into next week, there very well could be additional storm threats at mid-week and perhaps in the late week time period. And - as with last week’s setup – snow and ice may be on the table for much of the southern US including the region from Texas to Georgia as Arctic air is again likely to penetrate all the way down to the Gulf coast.

Inauguration Day weather

In term of any potential impact on Inauguration Day and planned outdoor events, two weather parameters will have to be monitored. The first is the cold which will likely be increasing in its intensity around the time of the swearing in ceremony (noon) with temperatures potentially in the lower 20’s and a wind chill to make it feel even colder. There is also the chance of some snow in the DC area later Sunday into Monday depending on the formation of low pressure along the Arctic front.

It was so cold on January 20th, 1985 that all outdoor activities for Ronald Reagan’s second swearing-in ceremony were cancelled. Temperatures were in single digits at the noon swearing-in time in Washington, D.C. on January 20th during what was an extremely cold Arctic air outbreak. Map courtesy NOAA

The most recent Inauguration Day that was impacted considerably by the weather took place in January of 1985 for Ronald Reagan’s second term. It was so cold on that day in Washington, D.C. with an Arctic outbreak into the eastern states that all outdoor activities were cancelled. The outside temperature at noon on January 20th was only 7°F and wind chills during the afternoon were in the -10 to -20°F range. That particular cold wave in January 1985 happened to follow a major stratospheric warming event that got underway in December of 1984.

On the eve of JFK’s inauguration in 1961, eight inches of snow fell on Washington, D.C. causing the most crippling traffic jam the District had ever seen up to that point of time with hundreds of cars abandoned on the local roadways. By sunrise on the 20th, the snow had ended and the skies were clearing, but the day remained bitter cold.  An army of men worked all night to clear Pennsylvania Avenue and despite the cold, a large crowd turned out for the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. At noon, the temperature was only 22°F and the wind was blowing from the northwest at 19 mph making it feel like 7°F above zero. For some excellent information on “Inauguration Day weather” visit this NWS site.

Stay tuned...next week is going to be quite interesting.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com

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