1:15 PM | ****The worst that winter has to offer...widespread brutal cold with a Siberian connection...multiple snow and ice threats****
Paul Dorian
Some of the air that reaches the Mid-Atlantic region early next week will have its origins from the other side of the North Pole over the deeply snow-covered land of Siberia. Indeed “backward trajectory” models trace the origin of air parcels that reach the Mid-Atlantic region by Tuesday, January 21st, back to this part of the northern hemisphere. Plot courtesy NOAA
Overview
The next several days will feature the worst that winter has to offer with widespread brutal cold and multiple snow and ice threats. An Arctic invasion with a Siberian connection will get underway by Saturday as bitter cold air from Canada plunges southward through the central states. By Sunday, the Arctic air mass will spread eastward towards the Atlantic seaboard and by the time we get to Monday, Inauguration Day, most of the country will be in a deep freeze including the DC metro where outdoor activities are planned for the swearing-in ceremonies. In fact, the first couple of days of next week could be among the coldest seen across the nation in a long, long time as there will be bitter cold conditions extending virtually from coast-to-coast.
This Arctic invasion will come with multiple snow and ice threats including one later Sunday into Sunday night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US with several inches on the table, and another one at mid-week which could have a focus on the southern US. And, in the very short-term, snow is already falling today across the Great Lakes region with accumulations expected there on the order of a few inches, and occasional snow is likely to make its way into the DC-to-Philly-NYC corridor for the afternoon and early evening hours with accumulations possible of a coating to an inch or two.
Some snow is likely today across the Mid-Atlantic region and this includes the I-95 corridor where a coating to an inch or so can fall…watch out for slippery spots. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Some snow today Great Lakes/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US
In the near-term, there is a “clipper” system that is dropping southeastward across the Great Lakes region and some snow can make its way into the I-95 corridor for the afternoon and early evening. There can be accumulations on the order of a coating to an inch or two in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and slick spots can form later in the day. Roadways are very cold, and today’s temperatures should remain below-freezing - even in the big cities - enhancing the chance for slick spots to form with any snow that falls today.
By early Tuesday, January 21st, virtually the entire nation will be in the deep freeze with a large chunk of the Northern US likely experiencing below-zero temperatures. Temperatures in the big cities along the I-95 corridor can easily drop all the way into single digits for low temperatures by Tuesday morning. Indeed, the first couple days next week could be the coldest across the nation as a whole in a long, long time. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
An Arctic blast with a Siberian connection arrives into the northern US early this weekend
The colder-than-normal weather pattern that began earlier this month across the central and eastern US not only looks like it will be extend through the third week of January, but it is going to go to more extreme levels. Temperatures will fall to well below-normal levels across much of the nation for the first half of next week which is quite impressive indeed considering this is right around the time of year with the lowest “normal” temperatures. The upper-level pattern across North America has evolved into one that is producing “cross-polar” flow allowing for Siberian air to cross the North Pole and drop into Canada and the US. Siberia is land mass known for its extremely cold air masses this time of year as it typically develops on top of very deep snowpack.
An Arctic frontal boundary zone will slide into the eastern states on Sunday and energy (circled region) pushing through an upper-level trough can help to generate an Arctic wave of low pressure. This system can then push northeastward later Sunday into an increasingly cold air mass. As such, there is the chance of accumulating snow from later Sunday into Sunday night across portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Map courtesy Canadian Met Centre, tropicaltidbits.com
Sunday/Sunday night snowstorm threat Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US as Arctic air arrives
The outbreak of Arctic air will get underway by early Saturday over the central states and the bitter cold air mass will plunge southward all the way into the heart of Texas by late Saturday. On Sunday, the Arctic front at the leading edge of the Arctic air mass will slide into the eastern states and its progression will likely slow down across the southeastern states. Energy will rotate through an upper-level trough on Sunday, and this will open the door for an Arctic wave of low pressure to form along the front’s temperature gradient zone which is typically a favorable area for convergence in the atmosphere. That low pressure system will likely then push northeastward into an increasingly colder air mass, and it can produce snow or perhaps rain changing to snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by later Sunday into Sunday night…accumulations of several inches are most certainly on the table. (This kind of weather could make for quite an interesting Eagles-Rams game at 3pm on Sunday).
An Arctic wave of low pressure will form on Sunday along the frontal boundary zone and likely produce snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Accumulations are certainly on the table of at least a few inches from later Sunday into Sunday night…could make for an interesting Eagles-Rams game at 3pm on Sunday. Map courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com
Inauguration Day (Monday) weather…frigid for DC with a likely fresh snow cover to boot
By Monday, January 20th, the bitter cold air will be firmly established across much of the nation, and this includes in the DC metro region where outdoor activities are planned for the Inauguration Day ceremonies. Temperatures are likely to be not far from 20 degrees at noontime on Monday in the DC metro area - coldest Inauguration Day since 1985 (see below) - and there will be a biting wind to make it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures. In addition, there is likely to be a fresh snow cover in the DC metro region on Monday following what I expect to be accumulating snow to precede on Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures on Monday night (and Tuesday night) should easily drop into single digits along the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and could bottom out near zero degrees with the expectation that there will be a fresh snow cover. Well below-zero temperatures are likely for overnight lows across a huge part of the northern US early next week. Indeed, the first couple of days next week could turn out to be the coldest days across the nation as a whole in a long, long time with the brutally cold conditions expected from coast-to-coast.
It was so cold on January 20th, 1985 that all outdoor activities for Ronald Reagan’s second swearing-in ceremony were cancelled. Temperatures were in single digits at the noon swearing-in time in Washington, D.C. on January 20th during what was an extremely cold Arctic air outbreak. Map courtesy NOAA
The most recent Inauguration Day that was impacted considerably by the weather took place in January of 1985 for Ronald Reagan’s second term. It was so cold on that day in Washington, D.C. with an Arctic outbreak into the eastern states that all outdoor activities were cancelled. The outside temperature at noon on January 20th was only 7°F and wind chills during the afternoon were in the -10 to -20°F range. That particular cold wave in January 1985 happened to follow a major stratospheric warming event that got underway during December of 1984.
Data courtesy WJLA (Washington, D.C.)
On the eve of JFK’s inauguration in 1961, eight inches of snow fell on Washington, D.C. causing the most crippling traffic jam the District had ever seen up to that point of time with hundreds of cars abandoned on the local roadways. By sunrise on the 20th, the snow had ended, and the skies were clearing, but the day remained bitterly cold. An army of men worked all night to clear Pennsylvania Avenue and despite the cold, a large crowd turned out for the swearing-in ceremony and inaugural parade. At noon, the temperature was only 22°F and the wind was blowing from the northwest at 19 mph making it feel like 7°F above zero. (For some excellent information on “Inauguration Day weather” visit this NWS site).
The probability of snow and/or ice > 0.25 inches is “non-zero” (shown in green) across the southern US for the middle portion of next week. Indeed, there can be a storm system that forms by mid-week near the Gulf coast and cold air will be firmly established way down to the southern states. Map courtesy NOAA/WPC
Mid-week and late week storm threats
It’ll remain brutally cold on Tuesday and Wednesday across much of the nation (below-freezing temperatures all the way down to the Gulf coast) and a new wave of energy will rotate through the base of a large-scale upper-level trough and head towards the south-central states. This support aloft could help to spawn formation of surface low pressure over the Gulf of Mexico by the middle of next week and, if so, it would have plenty of well-established cold air to work with. Indeed, if this system materializes, there can be snow and ice all the way down in the southern states – similar to last week – and potentially, this snow and ice could work its way north and east into the Mid-Atlantic region. Looking even farther ahead, there may be yet another wave of energy headed towards the south-central US by late next week and this too can help to spin-up a storm system near the Gulf coast by the end of next week or early part of the subsequent weekend
Any good news…pitchers and catchers report in 23 days..
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Arcfield
arcfieldweather.com
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