Low pressure that has produced accumulating snow today in much of the Mid-Atlantic region will shift to the western Atlantic Ocean during the next hour or so; however, it is not necessarily through with our area just yet. Snow is developing in the northwest sector of this eastward-moving storm system and this “backend” snow will impact the region from DC-to-the-Delmarva-to-southern NJ late today and early tonight and likely up across southern PA as well. In fact, there can be additional snow accumulations in some areas of up to a couple of inches before the precipitation shield finally fully departs the Mid-Atlantic region. On the backside of the storm late tonight and Tuesday, stiff NW winds will develop and can gust past 40 mph or so making it feel even colder than the actual air temperatures.
Looking ahead, this cold and active weather pattern threatens to produce another storm system late this week and weekend. This time, the location of the storm development will be way down south likely over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico by week’s end. As such, there can be an impact in the Deep South and this can even include significant accumulating snow and ice across places like Texas and Arkansas. After that, the low pressure system likely heads towards the eastern seaboard and the timing of its intensification along the coast will be critical in determining how much impact there can be in the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. A quick intensification along the Mid-Atlantic coastline could mean significant accumulating snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor or the system may “wait” until it pushes farther to the north and east to intensify which would likely limit any big impact to eastern New England.
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A major winter storm system will move eastward today and produce significant accumulating snow in the area that is likely to fall at its heaviest during the morning hours. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation during the afternoon and sleet can mix in at times; especially, to the south and west of the metro region. Snow or a mix of snow and sleet that changes back to all snow likely re-intensifies during the late afternoon or early evening hours on the backend of the storm system with additional accumulations possible. Total accumulations of 5-10 inches are on the table with isolated higher amounts possible of up to 12 inches or so…the biggest snow event in several years for the DC metro region. Arctic cold will follow for the next few days as our cold, active weather pattern continues in the Mid-Atlantic region. Later in the week, low pressure is likely to develop over the Gulf of Mexico and it can move northeast from there and have an impact in the region this weekend.
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Low pressure will intensify today as it treks eastward through the Tennessee Valley and reaches the coastal waters of the southern Mid-Atlantic by Monday evening. This system will continue to produce significant snowfall along the way with a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather later today and early tonight in the storm’s warm sector centered over the Lower Mississippi Valley region.
Snow should arrive in the DC metro region around midnight and into the Philly metro just before daybreak. The heaviest snow in both places will likely be on the front end meaning late tonight and during Monday morning. In fact, there can be a lull in the precipitation on Monday afternoon and then some areas will receive “backend” snow on Monday evening; especially, in the region from DC to the Delmarva to southern NJ. The advance of the snow shield to the north will be inhibited by very dry air stationed over the Northeast US. As such, the storm’s effects will be more limited in places like Philadelphia compared to Washington, D.C. and virtually nonexistent up across New York City. Looking ahead, all indications point to plenty of cold weather left in January – potentially some extreme cold – and multiple storm threats including the possibility of one by the weekend.
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Low pressure will intensify over the central Plains on Sunday and it will become a major winter storm with widespread impact as it treks eastward reaching the coastal waters of the Mid-Atlantic region by Monday night. This system will produce significant snowfall along the way with more than a foot in many areas and there will be a swath of disruptive ice immediately to the south of the heavy snow zone. In addition, there will be an enhanced risk of severe weather on Sunday in the storm’s warm sector over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. The storm arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night and precipitation can last all the way into Monday night in some sections thanks in part to the likely development of “cold conveyor belt” snow on the back end.
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An Arctic cold front will approach the region later today and likely bring with it some snow shower activity and perhaps even a brief period of steadier snow that could result in accumulations of a coating to an inch or so. The time period of concern for this quick burst of snow is roughly 2-6 pm…watch for slick spots, rain can also mix in at times. The weekend will be quite cold with Arctic high pressure in control limiting our temperatures to the lower 30’s for afternoon highs on both days.
By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to intensify over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide from west-to-east producing a significant snowfall along the way across the Midwest later Sunday and then likely reach the DC region with accumulating snow by late Sunday night. Precipitation from this storm system can last all the way into Monday night with several inches of snowfall on the table. One complicating factor with respect to the potential snow accumulation amounts will be the likelihood for some sleet and/or freezing rain to mix into the picture; especially, in the southern half of the metro region. This low pressure will then slide off the east coast on Tuesday and more Arctic air will follow encompassing a wide part of the nation.
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A colder and active weather pattern is indeed unfolding for the central and eastern US and it is likely to bring two threats of snow to the Mid-Atlantic region during the next several days. First, an upper-level wave will rotate around the base of a large-scale trough of low pressure later tomorrow and it can produce snow showers in the area and maybe even a period of steadier snow; primarily, in the region from DC/northern Delmarva-to-southeastern PA/southern NJ…small accumulations are on the table. A surge of Arctic air will follow the system later tomorrow night setting us up for a cold weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region. A more important threat of snow comes for late Sunday night and Monday as low pressure moves eastward from the Midwest with significant accumulations on the table in portions of the Mid-Atlantic region including the DC-to-Philly corridor.
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It turns colder today and then even colder this weekend following the passage of a cold front on Friday night that will usher in Arctic air for Saturday and Sunday. The cold front can produce snow showers around here later tomorrow Friday - maybe even a period of steadier snow - and an Arctic high pressure system will take control by the weekend.
By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to organize over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of accumulating snow on its north side. This system will slide east by Sunday night and Monday producing a significant snowfall in the Midwest and there is a good chance for accumulating snow here on Monday with several inches on the table. This system will then slide off the east coast by Tuesday of next week and more Arctic air will encompass a wide part of the nation.
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The passage of a cold front will usher in cooler air for today and winds can gust to 50 mph on the backside of departing low pressure. It turns progressively colder later this week and weekend as the pattern change to much colder-than-normal kicks into full gear. There will also be the chance for snow shower activity on Friday as we transition to colder conditions with the passage of a cold front…even an outside chance for small accumulations.
By the latter part of the weekend, low pressure will begin to organize over the middle of the nation and it’ll have quite a bit of cold air to work with resulting in plenty of snow on its north side. This system will slide east by Sunday night and Monday likely producing a decent snowfall in the Midwest and there is a chance for some snow to make its way into at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic with the southern half of the region likely having the highest probabilities (e.g., DC, Baltimore). This system will then slide off the east coast around Tuesday of next week and Arctic air will encompass a wide part of the nation.
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A much colder-than-normal weather pattern is about to commence for the central and eastern US and it looks like it’ll be one with some staying power. In fact, this upcoming cold stretch for much of the nation may feature some extreme cold and very cold conditions may penetrate all the way into the southern states from Texas-to-Florida. In addition, there are likely to be multiple snow threats in this developing weather pattern that can impact much of the central and eastern US to go along with the expected much colder-than-normal temperatures. Next week looks particularly interesting in a period that may feature some extremely cold air and multiple threats of snow including one in the Sunday/Monday/Tuesday time frame for the Midwest and at least portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Numerous teleconnection indices support the notion of a much colder-than-normal weather pattern, and an unfolding stratospheric warming event enhances the idea that the much colder-than-normal temperature pattern can be sustained well into the month of January.
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Low pressure will bring more rain to the region from later today into tonight and there can be a strong thunderstorm mixed into the picture. Moderately cold air will follow for Thursday and Friday on the heels of a mid-week cold frontal passage. It’ll turn even colder this weekend as our long anticipated pattern change to much colder-than-normal conditions becomes better established. This pattern change to colder weather for the central and eastern states will be quite active as well and there may be some snow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor by early next week. Bitter cold Arctic air could be in the cards across much of the nation by later next week and a second storm threat is possible as well.
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